Climate Change is real and knocking at the door of Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir as now government too has officially acknowledged that even electricity outage is due to changes in weather patterns during the month of March, 2022.
Significantly, Jammu and Kashmir is among the five top states/UT of India which is witnessing heat waves and the situation in these regions is worsening with every passing day.
The early heat waves of 2022 that began on March 11 have impacted 15 Indian states and Union territories as of April 24, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This data was analyzed by Down To Earth.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, March 2022 was the hottest March in India's 122 year old recorded weather history. Similarly, April is turning out to be the hottest April in the last 50 years.
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have suffered the most among the states, with 25 heatwave and severe heatwave days each during this period. Himachal Pradesh recorded 21 heatwaves, Gujarat 19, and Jammu and Kashmir 16.
According to data shared by the Centre for Science and Environment after Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the mountainous state of Himachal Pradesh has been the most affected by heatwaves this year - with 21 heatwave and severe heatwave days.
One anomalous point in the IMD's data is that the weather agency has officially declared only one heatwave day for Odisha, even though temperatures higher than 40 degrees Celsius was recorded across the state on April 24.
A heatwave happens when the temperature of a place crosses 40-degree Celsius in the plains, 37-degree Celsius in coastal areas, and 30-degree Celsius in the hills.
The weather agency declares a heatwave when a place registers a temperature that is 4.5 to 6.4-degree Celsius more than the normal temperature for the region on that day.
If the temperature is over 6.4-degree Celsius more than normal, the IMD declares a 'severe' heatwave.
According to CSE, the unlikely impact of the current heatwaves would occur in the Himalayan regions of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Uttarakhand which are not used to heatwaves and are not well adapted to the extreme temperatures.
"One major impact in these regions would be on the accelerated melting of glaciers due to extreme temperatures which are the main source of water for the people living there", the report said.
As J&K is witnessing an unprecedented increase in temperature during the last two years, environmentalists have blamed changing climate for the same.
In the first week of April this year, the temperature of Srinagar and Jammu was also the same.
"It is a matter of concern as the temperature is increasing in the areas which usually witness pleasant weather in April," said Dr Vivak M. Arya, a scientist working in the field of climate change and natural resource management at Agriculture University, Jammu.
He said that the heatwave is largely due to human-induced activities. "Events of the heatwave are going to increase in the coming years," Dr Arya said, adding, "Climate change has a part to play in making this heatwave hotter and more likely the spell in coming years will increase."
According to CSE report agricultural yields were badly impacted due to the heatwave. "The wheat crop in the current rabi season in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh has been impacted by heatwaves. Many farmers have reported losses between 20 and 60 percent in these states", the report said.
This happened because the heat waves were early this year and the temperatures affected the wheat plants during their growth stage, leading to shriveled grains which fetch lower prices in the market, resulting in losses.
"To reduce agricultural losses due to heatwaves, heat-tolerant varieties of wheat need to be developed. Similarly, heat-resistant varieties of other rabi crops also need to be developed", the report said.
Meanwhile, scientists have identified 100 pressing research questions on climate change and water resources in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which they say must be answered to protect the communities living in the region.
The UIB is located in the mountainous Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) region, of which Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh is a part, and which feeds the river systems that supply the world’s largest network of irrigated agriculture.
Hundreds of millions of people across Pakistan, India, China, and Afghanistan depend on these water resources and so adapting to climate change is essential, the researchers, including those from the University of Kashmir in Srinagar, noted.
The study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, employed a ‘horizon scanning’ technique to identify 100 essential questions required for successful adaptation to ongoing and future climate change in the UIB.
The aim of the study is to identify knowledge gaps and opportunities in social and natural sciences to help inform climate plans, water management, and development policy, the researchers said.
The Top 100 research questions identified in the study would inform policymaking for developing strategies and action plans to combat climate change and hydrological extremes in UIB, of which Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh is a part,” said Professor Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, who participated in the study.
“The study demonstrates a collaborative role for stakeholders within and outside the UIB to develop climate change adaption plans, and policies which will secure and protect the UIB communities that live there,” said Romshoo, who is the Vice-Chancellor of Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST) in Awantipora, Jammu and Kashmir.
The authors noted that one of the main priorities of the study was to emphasise the importance of identifying knowledge gaps in both the natural and social sciences, as research efforts to identify the impacts of climate change on the latter have for a long time often been neglected in favour of the former.
In an official statement, Kashmir Power Development Corporation Limited said that early arrival of summer in rest of the country lead to highest ever power demand and reduced thermal power generation coupled with sub-optimal generation of hydro power due to reduced discharge because of less rains has resulted in deficient power availability leading to unscheduled and prolonged power cuts.
While sharing details about current capacity, it said that hydro generation currently is around 50% of the installed capacity and load supplied by KPDCL is in the range of 900-1100 MWs against the peak demand of 1600MW.
Senior officer of KPDCL informed that the hydro generation is expected to improve once discharge increases to optimal level in coming weeks subject to sufficient rainfall.
It further added that reduced thermal generation has affected J&K UT’s power allocation /imports.