There is no doubt that US is desperate to exit from Afghanistan but is the negotiation with Taliban the best solution? Taliban has not been reformed and its five year brutal rule is still fresh in the mind of the Afghans. It certainly suits Pakistan because it helps it achieve its aim of achieving strategic depth and use Afghan territory for promoting terrorism. It will also put an end to the hope of a democratic Afghanistan, disappointing millions of Afghans who are hoping for a brighter future. India must therefore press for its involvement in the peace talks and ensure that Taliban do not elbow out the elected Afghan government. Trump’s desperation can be gauged from this statement, “I could win that war within a week, and I don’t want to kill 10 million people. Afghanistan could be wiped off the face of the earth. I don’t want to go that route.” India has lot at stake because Afghanistan holds significant economic, security and strategic implications for India. India cannot be a mute spectator but has to ensure that democracy survives in Afghanistan.
As far as counter-terrorism is concerned not much time was devoted to the same possibly to avoid public embarrassment to the visiting premier whose services US badly needs in view of its leverage over the Taliban, thanks to the safe havens it provides to the group's leadership. But as admitted by Imran Khan himself that more than 40 terror groups exist in Pakistan, the situation is very fragile. Any terror attack in Afghanistan or India with mass causalities with proven links to Pakistan will reverse the new fond relationship between the US and Pakistan. Pakistan will have to tread the path very carefully. Pakistan which considers India a quintessential threat is not going to so easily give up the low cost option of bleeding India through thousand cuts and will attempt to promote the idea of home-grown terror in India due to her inherent fault lines. His statement claiming that Jaish e Mohammad (JeM) operates from Kashmir as well must be seen in this light.
Imran Khan was successful in raising the Kashmir issue during the one on one meeting with President Trump. It was a spin doctored question asked by a correspondent to prevent difficult questions on Pakistan’s involvement in terrorism which would have caused a lot of embarrassment to Pakistan. The question successfully diverted the topic to Kashmir in which Imran lost no time in seeking Trump’s mediation and assistance in resumption of Indo-Pak dialogue on which India has made her stand very clear by stating that talks and terror cannot be held together. “We’ve made all overtures to India to start dialogue, resolve our differences through dialogue. But, unfortunately, we haven’t made headways as yet. But I’m hoping that President Trump would push this process,” Khan said.
Trump surprised everyone with his signature trademark off-the-cuff remark. Trump has developed a habit of speaking or tweeting without preparation or proper briefing. His remark raged a controversy to which New Delhi reacted promptly in order to set the record straight. Fearing a strain in Indo-US relations a number of American bureaucrats and leaders also jumped in to save the situation from worsening. But Trump is Trump and his remark should be seen in the light of his desperation for an early Afghan exit. But Imran has succeeded to once again internationalise Kashmir, after numerous failed attempts by Pakistan in last many years. India has to be careful and thwart ISI’s design to portray home grown terror groups in India by promoting the proxies of ISIS like ISJK, al-Qaeda like Ansar Ghazwa-ul-Hind, Hizbul Mujahideen (HM) and other ISIS affiliate or ISIS inspired terror outfits across the country. ISI will certainly attempt to influence the Left Wing Extremism as has been exposed by the Pune Police disclosing links between urban Naxals and HM.
Imran Khan’s attempt at reviving bilateral trade, as was evident from the large number of businessmen and traders that formed his entourage, and unblock the US aid has failed for the time being and is in no way going to help Imran to come out of the current economic mess. It may force Imran to continue and persist with the various counter terrorism mechanisms put in place including arrest of Hafiz Saeed and more arrests likely provided the Army and ISI permit. The imminent danger of being placed in Black List by the FATF may tie the hands of ISI and Army. Axe is likely to fall more on Afghan specific terror groups like the Taliban and Haqqani network.
The visit has been significant as far as bilateral security cooperation and military-to-military relations are concerned. There is a bright chance of resuming suspended military training programmes for Pakistan. At one point during President Trump’s meeting with Imran, the former also hinted at resumption of the security assistance for Pakistan depending on what both countries achieve concerning Afghanistan.
The major plus point of the visit has been the personal rapport the two have established. There is a great likelihood of a direct tele line between the two leaders further cementing their bonhomie and smoothen any bureaucratic hiccups that may erupt while the two nations are working for the common goal. Islamabad would like to use such an opportunity to sort out other issues in the bilateral realm.
Will there be a change in the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US and will Pakistan succeed in elbowing out India from the US equation in the region, Indian diplomats will have to work hard to ward off any such possibility. Though, the present bonhomie between the two is Afghan specific, what shape it takes in future in case Imran succeeds to placate the Taliban will have to be watched carefully. (Concluded)

(Author is a Jammu based political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst. He can be contacted at anil5457@gmail.com)