Bangladesh's caretaker regime is determined about taking concrete steps to expand the scope of economic and military engagements with Pakistan. Bangladesh and Pakistan have signed a visa-free travel agreement for holders of government and diplomatic passports during the visit of Pakistan’s deputy PM and foreign minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar to Dhaka this August.
Pakistan also announced 500 scholarships for Bangladeshi students over the next five years, with 25 per cent allocated for medical education, besides increasing scholarships under its technical assistance programme and pledging specialised training.
Dar’s was the first visit by a foreign minister of Pakistan to Bangladesh since Hina Rabbani Khar’s in 2012. He called on Muhammad Yunus and also Bangladesh National Party leader Khaleeda Zia and Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman.
But the Yunus regime is not being an ear-on-ground administration.
The Bangladeshis are given hope that ties with Pakistanis will help. But Islamabad has own problems and liabilities with IMF loans. It is also saddled with the problem of Talibans and Baloch. Can such a country bail out Bangladesh -- which is standing isolated from a big and vibrant economy such as India ?
The Yunus regime is claiming that the economy is doing fine. This is harsh untruth. The fact is factories are closing, people are losing jobs and signs of economic distress can be seen. The volume of bilateral trade has always been low and heavily tilted in favour of Pakistan.
Out of about $865million worth of bilateral trade, Pakistan exported about $778 million.
There are other examples. The Chittagong to Karachi has been opened to expand trade. However, no importer is interested to connect with Pakistan. The obvious reason is the maritime link is economically not viable.
Reality check
Lawlessness is order of the day. As a result, Bangladeshi citizens as well as business houses - small and big ones- are paying a price. Hence, experts caution that the Yunus regime's pro-Pakistani line set to hit stiff roadblocks. The self-seeking ambitious Yunus has his reasons to push pro-Islamabad line. He has to keep the powerful political actors and the anti-India elements in the armed forces happy. His agenda is simple and virtually one-point : Continue in office. As polls are nearing, his nervousness is also on rise.
Amid these comes the India angle. There is much realisation in Bangladesh that business with India was always more profitable. But India has closed several gates. Still there are areas India-Bangladesh trade and commerce is booming.
There is still a mysterious story of upswing journey in trade between India and Bangladesh. India is in more ways than one "a necessary trade partner" for Bangladesh because the two countries share a roughly 4,000-kilometer-long border.
As a matter of fact, India shares border with Bangladesh on three sides. Moreover, border ports such as like Benapole-Petrapole keep the cost of transport of bulk goods and raw materials low. A lot of Bangladeshi factories need to import Indian intermediate goods such as machinery, packaging materials, and chemicals. This has helped Bangladesh in maintaining the average production of garments, leather, and agro-processing products.
There is yet another aspect. In the perspective of Govt of India come four states of Tripura, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Assam. In Dhaka's view there is the Chittagong Hill Tracts. Both India and Bangladesh have always done well mutually when they focused on local economy, social improvements and local solutions in inter-dependence and growth. The India-Bangladesh dimension vis-a-vis CHT and India's northeast have multiple aspects to look into:
They are Migration, Cross border trade, commerce, Security and challenges including smuggling, tribal populations and also land and water concerns. This region has serious diplomatic and strategic challenges.
This means the dispensation in Dhaka after the polls will need greater engagement with India.
Of course, arguments are being built up to defend and justify how 'economic reasons' are pushing the Bangladeshi regime to consider Pakistan as a trade partner more as an alternatte avenue. But the fact is other than radical Islam and anti-India terror elements, Pakistan hardly has anything meritorious to offer. And even in case of stronger military ties, Pakistan is firstly clueless about its own security.
Whether it is pro-US or slowly it has turned anti-Afghanistan? Thus, the extent of engagement in defence matters with Dhaka for Islamabad will wait the elections and a stable government to seal any deal worth mentioning.
Bangladesh in contrast has to wait for the elections. Of course, the Awami League is not contesting and hence a BNP-Jamaat kind of combo is expected. The newly floated NCP may do some miracles but they will be poor performer in governance.
Dhaka will ultimately have to enlist New Delhi's help to work on inclusive development, revive its economy and even constitutional reform and youth empowerment along with recognition of tribal rights.
Do they have the appetite and attitude for all that?
Email:------------------------------nirendelhi@gmail.com
Bangladesh's caretaker regime is determined about taking concrete steps to expand the scope of economic and military engagements with Pakistan. Bangladesh and Pakistan have signed a visa-free travel agreement for holders of government and diplomatic passports during the visit of Pakistan’s deputy PM and foreign minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar to Dhaka this August.
Pakistan also announced 500 scholarships for Bangladeshi students over the next five years, with 25 per cent allocated for medical education, besides increasing scholarships under its technical assistance programme and pledging specialised training.
Dar’s was the first visit by a foreign minister of Pakistan to Bangladesh since Hina Rabbani Khar’s in 2012. He called on Muhammad Yunus and also Bangladesh National Party leader Khaleeda Zia and Jamaat-e-Islami chief Shafiqur Rahman.
But the Yunus regime is not being an ear-on-ground administration.
The Bangladeshis are given hope that ties with Pakistanis will help. But Islamabad has own problems and liabilities with IMF loans. It is also saddled with the problem of Talibans and Baloch. Can such a country bail out Bangladesh -- which is standing isolated from a big and vibrant economy such as India ?
The Yunus regime is claiming that the economy is doing fine. This is harsh untruth. The fact is factories are closing, people are losing jobs and signs of economic distress can be seen. The volume of bilateral trade has always been low and heavily tilted in favour of Pakistan.
Out of about $865million worth of bilateral trade, Pakistan exported about $778 million.
There are other examples. The Chittagong to Karachi has been opened to expand trade. However, no importer is interested to connect with Pakistan. The obvious reason is the maritime link is economically not viable.
Reality check
Lawlessness is order of the day. As a result, Bangladeshi citizens as well as business houses - small and big ones- are paying a price. Hence, experts caution that the Yunus regime's pro-Pakistani line set to hit stiff roadblocks. The self-seeking ambitious Yunus has his reasons to push pro-Islamabad line. He has to keep the powerful political actors and the anti-India elements in the armed forces happy. His agenda is simple and virtually one-point : Continue in office. As polls are nearing, his nervousness is also on rise.
Amid these comes the India angle. There is much realisation in Bangladesh that business with India was always more profitable. But India has closed several gates. Still there are areas India-Bangladesh trade and commerce is booming.
There is still a mysterious story of upswing journey in trade between India and Bangladesh. India is in more ways than one "a necessary trade partner" for Bangladesh because the two countries share a roughly 4,000-kilometer-long border.
As a matter of fact, India shares border with Bangladesh on three sides. Moreover, border ports such as like Benapole-Petrapole keep the cost of transport of bulk goods and raw materials low. A lot of Bangladeshi factories need to import Indian intermediate goods such as machinery, packaging materials, and chemicals. This has helped Bangladesh in maintaining the average production of garments, leather, and agro-processing products.
There is yet another aspect. In the perspective of Govt of India come four states of Tripura, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Assam. In Dhaka's view there is the Chittagong Hill Tracts. Both India and Bangladesh have always done well mutually when they focused on local economy, social improvements and local solutions in inter-dependence and growth. The India-Bangladesh dimension vis-a-vis CHT and India's northeast have multiple aspects to look into:
They are Migration, Cross border trade, commerce, Security and challenges including smuggling, tribal populations and also land and water concerns. This region has serious diplomatic and strategic challenges.
This means the dispensation in Dhaka after the polls will need greater engagement with India.
Of course, arguments are being built up to defend and justify how 'economic reasons' are pushing the Bangladeshi regime to consider Pakistan as a trade partner more as an alternatte avenue. But the fact is other than radical Islam and anti-India terror elements, Pakistan hardly has anything meritorious to offer. And even in case of stronger military ties, Pakistan is firstly clueless about its own security.
Whether it is pro-US or slowly it has turned anti-Afghanistan? Thus, the extent of engagement in defence matters with Dhaka for Islamabad will wait the elections and a stable government to seal any deal worth mentioning.
Bangladesh in contrast has to wait for the elections. Of course, the Awami League is not contesting and hence a BNP-Jamaat kind of combo is expected. The newly floated NCP may do some miracles but they will be poor performer in governance.
Dhaka will ultimately have to enlist New Delhi's help to work on inclusive development, revive its economy and even constitutional reform and youth empowerment along with recognition of tribal rights.
Do they have the appetite and attitude for all that?
Email:------------------------------nirendelhi@gmail.com
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