Let us accept that the war in Ukraine is a war against Europe, against European values - freedom, National sovereignty, human rights and soon. That is perhaps why Europe has been most vocal and active in defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine .But is it succeeding or missing the bus, especially on bringing about ceasefire?
The world, especially Europe is waiting with bated breath for probable outcomes of the Tri-lateral meeting that may happen soon. It is in order that we assess the potential takeaways from that meeting. There could be two possible outcomes. One, ceasefire is agreed upon by both parties. And the second, there will be no ceasefire, as the conditions put on the table may not be acceptable to either party. In the second scenario, the war will continue. The first one depends fully upon the persuasive powers of American President Donald Trump. If he manages to convince Zelenskyy and threaten Putin that it may be very costly for him unless he agrees to a ceasefire. That is however easier said than done . So far, Trump has been trying to warm up to Putin, but to no avail.
Apparently, Putin does not want an immediate ceasefire. He would like to stretch the war as long as he can. He is, however, open to conversations. While the war and conversations continue, he gains more ground, occupies more territory. In his mind, Putin is clear that Ukraine is not a sovereign country. It has been a part of the Soviet Union, Greater Russia. He perhaps wanted to annex Ukraine. In the face of formidable resistance from Ukraine, he has changed his goal posts and the narratives. Now he says, he could not see NATO forces on Russian borders. His Foreign Minister Lavarov talks about protecting the Russian minorities in Ukraine. They have been harassed, and deprived, and their language was being undermined. That is purely disinformation. If that be the case, then Russia could invade the Baltic States that have sizeable Russian speaking citizens.
So for Putin, the ceasefire is not the cards. And Trump may not be able to put pressure on Putin. The latter understands the language of force. Trump has ruled out putting American boots on Ukraine soil, although he has ruled in the security support with American air-power. He has made it crystal clear that the defence and security cover of Ukraine is the primary as well as sole responsibility of Europe. Also, Russia has the support of countries like Turkey, China, North Korea, and indirectly, India. Trump has been trying to squeeze Russia with sanctions. He has come down heavily on India through unreasonable tariffs etc. to make it stop buying Russian oil. New Delhi, he said, was indirectly financing the Russian war in Ukraine by buying its oil. It is another matter that New Delhi has refused to be bullied and is prepared to face the consequences of American tariff. Trump could not put the same pressure on China or Turkey. The only country that has stood up against the American tariff is China .
How will the war end? It could end again in two ways. The solution could emerge out of the battlefield. Second, Putin may cave in to American arm- twisting. If the first scenario has to happen, Europe has to carry out the war for a few more years. The frontline states like Poland will want that. Zelenskyy seems to continue fighting. Ceding the territories to Russia may mean political death for Zelensky. Europe will have to ramp up its military-industrial structures to match the Russian current military might. It will take them a few years, may be up to a decade, to acquire military power to deter Russia. Till that time, Europe will have to have Trump and America on their side.
Thus, the European strategy should consist of two verticals. One, to keep Trump humoured to support Europe in the war against Russia. They may have to buy American military hardware and absorb American exports. Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general is doing that. The European Commission president has appreciated on record Trump’s leadership in brokering the ceasefire. Countries like Poland are enhancing their military capabilities. The other EU countries need to do the same. They are perhaps moving in that direction. Notably, Germany is buying the expensive F-35 fighter aircraft from America.
Trump had made it clear to Europe that it will not support NATO, the security umbrella for the most of Europe. The European countries have to pay for their own security. It is a bit late for Europe to think of their strategic autonomy. It has been basking under the security cover provided by America. The ship may have sailed for them. But Ukraine war and Trump’s fickle- minded approach have given them wake-up call. Europe must take heed. The chink in the European Union‘s armour has been visibly exposed. That is the lack of their international role and their own security. The only way to make-up is to ramp up their security measures.
What about the front line state Poland? Warsaw shares borders with Russia, has been occupied before by the Russia has been occupied before the Russian empire. Poland will not be comfortable with a truncated and trampled neighbour, like Ukraine. The virus of Russian imperialism may spread beyond Ukraine. So far Warsaw has been rightly ticking all the dots-military capability enhancement, strategic alliance, and cultivating big powers. But Warsaw seems to put all its eggs in the US basket. For now, that may be a correct strategy as the United States is the only superpower. But in the long run, Poland will have to fall back on Europe. The traditional big powers like Germany, France and Britain have buried their bickering past and have come together. Poland is yet to psychologically and intellectually integrate with Western Europe. Some of my West European contacts say that there is not much interest in Poland, its language. A German friend was sharing with me that Germans speak French, and other West European languages, but very little polish. Western Europe will have to reach out to the East. At the same time, Poland should deepen its European discourse. Warsaw should register as bigger presence Berlin and Paris, Rome and Madrid.
Finally, Europe should match their rhetoric with reality. I have been urging the Indian Government to do so in world affairs. Macron goes hammer and tongs on Putin; but can he translate that into action by deterring Russia. Europe, on its own, may not be able to stop Russia on its tracks. Also, Europe must restrain from what is called ‘Russophreina’ (A portmanteau word resembling schizophrenia). It should stop seeing Russia as a business partner as well as strategic enemy. It cannot eye on Russian gas and consider it a predator. Poland is firm on its assessment of Russia. Can it persuade its fellow EU member countries to do the same?

Email:----------------------------dr.dkgiri@gmail.com