Dr Akhtar Alam

The effects of climate change are indisputable, manifesting around the globe. No region, no ecosystem, and no society are immune to consequences of rapidly changing climate. The year 2024 saw the earth’s average temperature rise by 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900), underscoring the alarming pace at which global temperatures are rising. While the increase in temperature is perhaps the most widely discussed aspect of climate change, it is only one facet of a much larger and increasingly complex issue. The impact of climate change extends far beyond rising temperatures, influencing weather patterns, natural processes, and human systems in ways that are still unfolding and often difficult to predict. The scale of these changes is immense, affecting everything from local weather systems to the global economy, and from agricultural practices to the survival of entire ecosystems.
Among the most noticeable effects of climate change are the erratic and extreme weather patterns that are now becoming more frequent and intense. In particular, we are witnessing extreme events such as intense rainfall, heatwaves, and droughts occurring in close proximity, both in time and space. These extreme weather events, which were rare or exceptional, are now becoming commonplace, causing widespread damage and disruption. In many regions, these events are not only more frequent but also more severe, with increased intensity and longer durations. Simultaneously, we are also seeing shifts in the length and characteristics of seasons. Winters are shrinking, summers are extending, and both are increasingly marked by dryness for a significant portion of their duration. While global precipitation has increased at an average rate of 0.03 inches per decade since 1901, the crucial issue lies not in the overall increase but in the distribution of rainfall, which has become increasingly unpredictable. The timing and seasonal distribution of precipitation have changed dramatically, with more concentrated bursts of rainfall occurring at specific times, often leading to flooding in some regions and droughts in others.
These changes in precipitation patterns are particularly concerning for sectors that rely on predictable and steady water supply. For example, agriculture, hydropower, fisheries, tourism, and domestic consumption are all highly dependent on the availability of water throughout the year. In particular, agriculture is deeply tied to the seasonal accumulation of snowpack during winter months, which gradually melts and provides a steady flow of water to feed rivers, lakes, and aquifers during the warmer months. However, with increasing temperatures, winter precipitation is more likely to be in the form of rainfall rather than snow, resulting in reduced snowpack accumulation. This change is exacerbating the likelihood of drought conditions, which are predicted to become more frequent and severe as climate change progresses.
The implications of this shift in snowpack dynamics are particularly evident in regions like the Kashmir Valley, where the winter weather system, known as western disturbances, historically dominated precipitation patterns. These disturbances have been weakening in recent decades, resulting in a significant decline in snowfall. This trend has been ongoing for over a decade and is projected to worsen in the coming years, with potentially severe consequences. The snowpack in the Kashmir Valley has long been a critical source of sustained water flow for the region’s rivers, streams, and agricultural systems. As snowpack levels decline, the water availability during the summer months is becoming increasingly unpredictable, placing immense pressure on ecosystems and communities that depend on these water resources.
Observational meteorological parameters from 1980 to 2024 reveal concerning trends in temperature and river discharge in the Kashmir Valley. Mean annual temperatures have risen by an average of 0.024°C per year, while winter and spring temperatures have increased at rates of 0.046°C and 0.043°C per year, respectively. Over the past 60 years, river discharge in the valley has been steadily decreasing, with projections indicating that this trend will continue. By the end of the 21st century, river discharge is expected to decrease by 23-37 per cent under the medium emission scenario and by 19-46 per cent under the more extreme emission scenario. These predicted reductions in river flow are not merely theoretical; they have real-world consequences for the region’s ecosystems, agriculture, and economy.
Despite widespread perceptions that the Kashmir Valley has abundant water resources, the reality is far more complex. Water availability in the region is not just a question of access but also of sustainability. For the largely agrarian population, roughly 60 per cent of whom rely on agriculture sector and its allied activities for their livelihoods, the impacts of diminishing water resources are particularly dire. One of the most striking examples of this vulnerability is seen in the rapidly growing apple cultivation sector. In recent years, there has been a shift towards high-density apple orchards, which are water-intensive and rely heavily on consistent snowmelt for irrigation. These orchards require significant quantities of water; each tree needs between 3-10 liters of water per day, depending on the time of year and soil conditions. This method of apple farming, which is often financed through loans, has become a cornerstone of the region’s agricultural economy. However, the ongoing reduction in snowmelt and the increasing frequency of snow droughts are placing the long-term viability of these orchards in jeopardy. The challenges presented by changing water availability extend beyond agriculture to other sectors of the economy. Hydropower, which is an important source of energy for the region, is also highly dependent on steady river flow. As river discharge declines, the capacity to generate hydropower diminishes, potentially leading to energy shortages and economic disruptions. Similarly, fisheries, which depend on the health of freshwater ecosystems, may suffer as water levels drop and streamflow patterns become more erratic. Even the tourism industry, which thrives on the region's natural beauty, could be severely impacted by altered ecosystems and water shortages.
Climate change is a complex and multifaceted global process, and our understanding of atmospheric dynamics and circulation patterns remains a work in progress. Despite the remarkable advances in climate science, even the most sophisticated climate models are still unable to fully capture the intricate behaviours of the Earth's climate system. This means that projections for the future, both short-term and long-term, are surrounded by significant uncertainties. These uncertainties are compounded by a lack of comprehensive observational data in many regions, including the Kashmir Valley. As a result, climate projections for the valley must be viewed with caution, but the overarching trends are clear; increased temperatures, reduced snowpack, and altered precipitation patterns are already having profound effects on the region's ecosystems and economy.
In light of these challenges, it is crucial for researchers to continue investigating key areas of climate science, particularly snow hydrology, snowpack dynamics, and the impact of changing snowmelt patterns on water availability. Understanding the seasonal patterns of snowmelt discharge and how changes in snowpack influence river flow and groundwater recharge will be essential for managing water resources in the future. However, research alone is not enough. Policymakers must act now to formulate effective policies and adaptation strategies that can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. It is essential that decision-makers do not wait for the worst-case scenarios to unfold. Instead, we must proactively anticipate the challenges ahead and formulate strategies that will help the Kashmir Valley adapt to the inevitable changes.
Mitigation strategies should focus on sustainable water management, including the use of water-efficient technologies in agriculture, improvements in irrigation systems, and better management of existing water resources. There is also a need for policies that encourage the conservation of natural ecosystems, which can play a critical role in maintaining water balance and buffering against extreme weather events. Additionally, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and promoting climate-smart practices across all sectors of the economy will be essential to ensure a sustainable and resilient future of the Kashmir Valley.

Email:----------alamakhtar@uok.edu.in