It’s been three years, eight months and three weeks since Russia invaded the country of Ukraine, and to date, Russia has failed to agree on a ceasefire. Earlier this week, Ukraine faced its fiercest battle in months as Russia attacked Ukraine’s eastern town of Pokrovsk. Russian forces pressed into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, as Kyiv’s military mounted a stout defence. Moreover, as winter approaches, it adds another danger to the fight as the frozen grounds are most likely to favour the Russian armoury. At the time of writing, the Foreign Minister of India is visiting Russia and has met Vladimir Putin.

The city of Pokrovsk burns as Russia deploys 150000 troops, making a grinding progress in the battlefield of eastern Ukraine. While President Trump’s effort to end the war remains at a halt, as Putin refuses the ceasefire in Ukraine. The world seems to standby as an observer as Ukraine desperately fights to defend its sovereignty.
After 18 months of siege and enormous losses, capturing Pokrovsk has become something more for Russia, something more symbolic, to sell victory to its own people. Militarily, it is a pile of rubble; however, given the number of soldiers and equipment expended, it simply is too big a defeat to walk away from. On the other side, the Ukrainian military intelligence continues to attack key Russian air defence assets in occupied Crimea, and Crimea continues to look incredibly vulnerable to the Russians.
To add to this vulnerable situation, Russia is faced with another fuel crisis. Russia is an oil-rich country; the country’s oil is now at an all-time low, as Ukraine attacks multiple Russian oil refineries, with almost 5 attacks on the Saratov refinery by this fall. Ukraine has targeted 55% of Russia’s oil refineries, leading to a decline in the income Russia generates from its fuel and other refined products. But Russia still has a good amount of crude oil that can be refined elsewhere.
While Russia stated that it has no plans to attack NATO, Russia’s pressing on more Ukrainian territories has made the surrounding nations double up their defence spending. Poland, one of the biggest suppliers of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, also prepares for war with Russia if it decides to invade the Baltic states. Poland’s President vows to spend 4.7% GDP on defence by this year, and on the defence manufacturing side, Poland is scaling up artillery production, especially 155 mm howitzer shells, to support both its own defence and Ukraine’s war needs.
The question of this attack, thus, remains not if but when. As Poland continues to be a critical logistics hub for Ukraine, with large volumes of humanitarian and military aid transiting through it also acts as NATO's frontline, the cornerstone of Europe's defence. Contrary to the generous military and humanitarian aid being sent, the country is not overly eager to send its troops on the ground. This remains largely because Poland wants to keep its troops at the borders for security, as well as because of the bilateral and historical tensions between the two countries over the years.
In the midst of this, there is a rising shift in public sentiment. Security polling shows growing war fatigue, and according to a peace-security survey, only about half of Poles now support continued aid to Ukraine, and just 15% support sending Polish troops. Another survey (CBOS) found 55% of Poles believe the war should end even if Ukraine has to cede territory or independence. However, despite these doubts, Poland’s leadership still claims a strong role.
Poland’s geographical position renders it highly sensitive to spillover risks from the conflict. Incidents involving Russian drones entering Polish airspace, and the subsequent scramble of NATO aircraft, have heightened awareness of escalation pathways and underscored Poland’s vulnerability as a bordering state.
In response, Polish policymakers have advocated for strengthened NATO deterrence measures and have reopened debates on enhanced airspace protection for Ukraine, including proposals for a NATO-backed air-defence shield or a limited no-fly enforcement mechanism.
For an outside observer, Poland’s contributions reflect both principled support for Ukrainian sovereignty and pragmatic awareness of the strategic risks posed by Russian revisionism. As the conflict continues, Poland’s decisions will remain pivotal in determining not only Ukraine’s prospects but the broader stability of Europe’s eastern frontier.
India on the other hand, still appears to be neutral which implies support to Russian position on the war. Such a stance is causing considerable concern in European countries including Poland and the United States. Poland and Europe would want India to distance itself from Russia on Ukraine war or give a hand in bringing about a ceasefire.
Talking about India-Poland ties, they were taken to new heights as a strategic partnership was signed during Indian Prime Minister’s visit to the country in 2024 after a long gap, en route to Kiev. A Five-Year Action Plan was initiated for 2024-28. This laid out priority areas for deepening cooperation. The areas included political dialogue and security, trade and investment, climate, energy, mining, science and technology, transport and connectivity, counter-terrorism, cyber security, health cooperation, people-to-people relation and cultural exchange.
Both India and Poland are fastest-growing economies, Poland among the European countries and India in Asia. Both countries are seeking to enhance their respective roles in international affairs. Given the similarity in security concerns vis-à-vis Russia and China bordering both countries, and common national interest, it is in order that the ties should be deepened. The elephant in the room is the Ukrainian war.
India-Poland ties are critical for both countries in mutual interest and learning. India borders a big belligerent power, China that has taken Indian territories in 1962 war and is claiming more within India’s sovereign land. Beijing actively supported Islamabad which fought a limited war on 7th-9th May 2025 with India that ended in temporary ceasefire. According to India’s defence policy, the war, Operation Sindoor has not been withdrawn on Pakistan’s request. It has just been suspended.
Likewise, or worse, Warsaw faces another authoritarian country Russia which had in the past invaded and occupied Poland, which borders Russia as well as Ukraine and therefore, is highly vulnerable to Russian expansion and the spill-over of the current war. Both New Delhi and Warsaw have similar security risks.
Although Warsaw is not making this an issue in expanding bilateral relations, New Delhi should be sensitive to Poland’s precarious position. The Polish embassy in New Delhi is organising discourses with several think tanks and geo-political strategists. Polish institutions working on international affairs are sensitising Indian public, particularly the media on Ukrainian war. New Delhi should reciprocate with similar activities in Poland. That should certainly clear the air and align both countries’ foreign policies on various issues including Ukrainian war.

Email:------------------------dr.dkgiri@gmail.com