Signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty has long served as a rare example of cooperation between India and Pakistan. The treaty allocates control over the six rivers of the Indus basin: India receives rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan retains control over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). Despite multiple wars and decades of enmity, the treaty endured until 2025, when India announced suspension in response to pahalgam terror attack.
This suspension came in the immediate aftermath of the deadliest attack on tourists in India’s recent history—when 25 tourists and one local pony walla were killed in Baisaran, Pahalgam. In a horrifying turn of events, the attackers allegedly segregated victims based on religious identity before executing them. The local pony walla, who tried to protect the tourists, was also killed in retaliation. The massacre sent shockwaves across the nation and ignited a new wave of public and governmental outrage.
In response, the Government of India took decisive measures. The first step was the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, symbolizing a shift in India's strategic doctrine. Additionally, India canceled visas for Pakistani nationals present in India and launched Operation Sindoor, a well-coordinated military operation targeting terror headquarters in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Precision strikes reportedly destroyed multiple launch pads and safe havens for terrorists. These bold actions have dramatically reshaped the water and security dynamics in the region. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in particular marks a paradigm shift in South Asian water politics, with profound implications for Pakistan across multiple sectors—hydrological, agricultural, economic, ecological and geopolitical.
Pakistan is heavily reliant on the waters of the Indus River system for irrigation and agriculture, which employs nearly 40% of its workforce and contributes around 20% to the national GDP. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty means India is no longer bound to notify or coordinate water discharges, making Pakistan vulnerable to unpredictable water flows, especially during critical crop seasons. The situation is further exacerbated by Pakistan’s inefficient irrigation infrastructure. A staggering 97% of its freshwater is allocated to agriculture, much of which is lost due to outdated canal systems and poor water management. Any reduction or delay in water flow could severely impact the cultivation of essential crops such as wheat, rice and sugarcane.
Additionally, the withdrawal of flood data sharing and seasonal coordination could result in mismanagement of floods or droughts. During the summer monsoon, when rivers swell, Pakistan could face unexpected surges or shortfalls, leading to devastation in vulnerable regions. The cumulative impact could result in long-term food insecurity, inflation and declining rural livelihoods. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty also threatens Pakistan's fragile economy. Agriculture remains a backbone of rural income and exports, and any significant disruptions to water flow will trigger cascading effects on GDP, employment and food prices. Food shortages can create inflationary pressure, erode public trust in institutions and increase dependency on imports. In terms of energy, the country is already facing chronic shortages. Pakistan’s hydropower generation, dependent on projects like Tarbela and Mangla dams, will suffer if water flow is restricted. Reduced electricity generation can worsen the national energy crisis, affect industrial output and reduce household access to electricity in both urban and rural areas.
To meet these challenges, Pakistan might resort to increased borrowing to maintain imports and infrastructure. This could worsen the already critical debt situation, making the country more reliant on external sources like the International Monetary Fund or bilateral donors. Economic strain may also fuel civil unrest and deepen socio-political divides within the country. The environmental implications of the Indus Waters Treaty suspension are equally dire. The Indus River Delta, which once flourished with freshwater inflow and supported vast ecosystems, has already been degraded due to upstream diversions. With further reduction in flow, the delta faces accelerated salinity intrusion, which threatens agriculture, biodiversity and drinking water sources.
Mangrove forests, which protect coastal communities from storms and provide a habitat for diverse species are already in decline. The decreased freshwater flow will make these regions even more vulnerable to climate change, especially as sea levels rise. Local communities in delta regions such as Thatta and Badin will face forced displacement and loss of livelihoods.
Moreover, climate resilience will be significantly weakened. Without coordinated data sharing on floods, droughts and river health, both countries will struggle to mitigate natural disasters. The 2022 floods in Pakistan, which caused over $40 billion in damages, underscored the importance of timely cooperation. The absence of a functional treaty undermines this crucial aspect of disaster preparedness. Water has long been a sensitive issue between India and Pakistan. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has elevated it to a geopolitical flashpoint. Pakistan perceives India’s actions as weaponizing water, a resource considered sacrosanct and humanitarian. Former Pakistani officials have termed this an "act of war," and there are calls for international arbitration through forums like the International Court of Justice or the United Nations.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks turning point in Indo-Pak relations and has laid bare Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in water security, food production, energy access and environmental sustainability. The move not only threatens Pakistan’s economic stability but also undermines regional peace.