With tourists visiting the Kashmir Valley in large numbers, it’s apparent that the scare created by last year’s targeted killings of tourists by Pakistan sponsored terrorists in Pahalgam has abated. While this is indeed a positive development, concluding that the absence of any major terrorist action in J&K during the last one year is due to a change of heart on the part of Pakistan [or to be more specific Rawalpindi] would surely be a serious error of judgment.

Waging proxy war in J&K disguised as a so-called “armed struggle” has been the more than three-decade-old strategy of the Pakistan army to bleed India 'through a thousand cuts'. Since the realisation that they are being used as pawns has dawned upon the people of Kashmir, the number of locals joining terrorist ranks has significantly reduced. However, Rawalpindi is recruiting more people from Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir [PoJK] to continue its “armed struggle” farce and effectively buries the aman ki asha [hope for peace] belief.
While public awareness regarding the Pakistan army’s nefarious designs in J&K has resulted in a marked reduction in public support to terrorist groups, effective domination and proactive actions by security forces has severely restricted the terrorists’ freedom of action. However, since terrorists have an unlimited array of targets, lowering of guard would be suicidal and that’s why activists advocating withdrawal of security forces need to think twice.
As state-sponsored terrorists are operating in J&K ensuring foolproof security is a difficult task since these terrorists not only enjoy safe sanctuaries in PoJK and mainland Pakistan but are provided sophisticated military hardware and communication equipment by the Pakistan army’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence [ISI]. This is evident from the recovery of US made M4 carbines and M16 rifles as well high end Chinese “Ultra Set” satellite phones customised for specific use by the Pakistan army from slain terrorists in J&K.
The most likely reason why Rawalpindi hasn't orchestrated a major terrorist attack after the Pahalgam massacre of tourists is the fear of retributory action like Operation Sindoor by India. The fact that India could accurately annihilate nine key terror facilities, not only in PoJK but also Punjab Province of Pakistan without causing any collateral damage has proved that the Indian armed forces possess the capability of accurately identifying and effectively destroying targets in inhabited areas deep inside Pakistan.
However, though Operation Sindoor has undoubtedly acted as a deterrent, it would be puerile to assume that it has forced Rawalpindi to permanently cease orchestrating major acts of terrorism. The Pakistan army is presently in dire straits- it’s struggling against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [KP] as well as freedom fighters in Balochistan and to make matters worse, Pakistan has also declared war against Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces [CDF] Field Marshal Asim Munir has been exceptionally vocal and equally liberal when it comes to issuing threats. In February 2025, he warned TTP terrorists to either surrender or face death. Equating them with Khawarij-a radical sect that broke away from Islam during the fifth century, he named them Fitna-al- Khawarij, and declared that the Quran prescribes severe punishments like execution, crucifixion or amputation of limbs for them.
In April 2025, he warned Baloch freedom fighters, adding that “we will beat the hell out of those terrorists very soon.” In December 2025, he made a brusque announcement-cum-ultimatum that Kabul must choose between maintaining relations with Pakistan and supporting TTP. Whereas his tough talk may have appealed to the people, with two out of Pakistan’s four provinces under siege and an uneasy truce with Kabul, Field Marshal Munir is under extreme pressure to do something that buttresses his plummeting public image.
As he has openly been blaming New Delhi for the ongoing violence both in KP and Balochistan, ultra-nationalist groups and terrorist organisations in Pakistan are clamouring for action against India. By peddling the false narrative that the Pakistani armed forces had decisively vanquished India during Operation Sindoor, people in Pakistan believe that attacking and destroying India is a cakewalk for the Pakistan army. So, remembering his August 2025 boast that "We'll start [destroying] from India's East, where they have located their most valuable resources, and then move westwards," the public wants the Field Marshal to fulfil his promise of methodically destroying India.
With his back to the wall, it’s only a matter of time before the CDF is forced to escalate Pakistan’s proxy war against India. Though orchestrating terrorist acts in J&K is the easiest choice, fear of retribution and international criticism may compel the CDF to exercise other options and it seems that ISI has already prepared for the same and the frequent unearthing of ISI created sleeper cells gives credence to this inference. Furthermore, the attempt of Pakistan based Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM] terrorist group to establish JeM’s women wing in India to wage jihad and the direct link of Al Falah University terror module member Dr Shaheen Shahid with JeM founder Masood Azahar’s sister is a live example that can't be ignored.
It would therefore be prudent for New Delhi to remain alert and adequately prepared as the period of relative peace presently prevailing is just the proverbial calm before the storm.



Email:---------------------------nileshkunwar.56@gmail.com