The much awaited Gujarat assembly elections have been announced by the election commission of India .The elections are scheduled to be held in December 2022 to elect 182 members of the Gujarat legislative assembly .The elections will be done in two phases as polling will be held on 1 and 5 December .Gujarat being the home state of PM Modi and HM Amit Shah is no doubt the strong hold of the ruling BJP ,but this time there will be a three cornered fight between BJP,AAP and Congress as all the three political parties are attending much importance to these elections and making intense efforts to make it to final success in the elections .Thus these assembly elections are much interesting as all the eyes are set on the elections of Gujarat .Undoubtedly Gujarat has good following for BJP ,but still this time it will not be so easy for the BJP to retain power as the contest is three cornered and very tough given the fact that anti incumbency is a big issue in these elections .The tenure of 14th Gujarat Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on 18th February 2023.The previous assembly elections were held in December 2017.After the elections BJP formed the state government .
There is three way poll contest in bipolar state politics and all eyes are on AAP because it is making inroads in Gujarat politics and trying its best to be an alternative to BJP in the state .Long caught between two polarities ,Guajarat’s electoral field has expanded to include the Aam Aadmi Party challenging the BJP as well as the opposition congress that has lost ground but still has significant presence .As campaign knives get sharpened ,the October tragedy in which 135 people lost their lives could find emotive resonance .Besides ,the freebies versus welfarism debate—over which challenger AAP and BJP have been sparring over the last several weeks-and the ruling party’s main poll plank of Hindutva ,double engine growth and continuity in governance are likely to remain centre stage.
After more than 30 years ,Gujarat is all set to witness a three –cornered contest in the forthcoming assembly elections to be held in two phases on December 1 and 5. This was revealed by as exclusive CVOTER-ABP Gujarat Opinion poll to gauge popular perceptions and voting intent of adult citizens in the state with a sample size of 22807spread across all 182 assembly constituencies in Gujarat using random sampling techniques .As per poll ,the Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) has emerged as a formidable force in the state and is projected to gather a vote share of more than 20 percent in the forthcoming elections .This makes Gujarat assembly elections a three cornered contest like what was witnessed in UP during last three decades before popular support for BSP collapsed in the 2022 assembly elections .The last time Gujarat witnessed a similar three-cornered contest was in 1990.In that election ,the erstwhile Janta Dal had polled almost 30% vote share while congress vote share had slumped to 31%.An ascendant BJP had then polled about 27% of the vote share .The popular sentiment in Gujarat that is leaning towards a three- cornered contest will inflict maximum damage on congress ,just as it had done in 1990.According to the projections made by the opinion poll ,the vote share of congress is expected to crash by 12.5 % to 29% this time as compared to 2017 assembly elections .
In 2017 congress had given a close fight to BJP in a bipolar contest by winning 77 seats in 182 member state assembly .But the change from a bipolar contest to three cornered contest would hurt congress as it is projected to win between 31 to 39 seats this time .There will be a three way poll contest in Gujarat assembly elections .Long caught between two polarities ,Gujarat’s electoral field has expanded to include a third party with AAP challenging the ruling BJP as well as the opposition congress that has lost ground but still has some significant presence ,Though elections were announced just a few days ago ,the buzz for what will be a three cornered contest has been getting steadily louder over the last few weeks.PM Modi and several union ministers have been making frequent visits to the state .
Modi was in Morbi on 1st November to review the situation .And all eyes are on AAP chief Arvind kejriwal as well as his party leaders who have made a high decibel entry into the field ,giving voters a third option in a state that has decades been bipolar in its politics. The elections are crucial for BJP ,which has won six successive terms and aims at retaining power in Modi’s home state ,as well as for AAP ,hoping desperately that a win in Gujarat will propel it to a pan –India political force ,the third state in its bag after Delhi and victory in Punjab in March this year .The congress on its part hopes to end its 27 year stint in the opposition but has so far been quite with its notion .Former president Rahul Gandhi’s leadership is conspicuous its their absence .The BJP has 111 seats and congress 62 in the current assembly .
The NCP has one ,BTP two ,independent one and five seats are vacant ,including three congress MLA’s resigned .With leaders of various parties making a beeline for the state, much before announcement of the elections ,and parties firming up their strategies ,cities and villages of Gujarat are dotted with advertisement banners and posters of political parties .Modi the star campaigner ,has increased the frequency of his trips to Gujarat and addressed well attended gatherings in different parts of the state in last few weeks .Several union ministers and party leaders fanned out across thestate during the nearly 10 day Gujarat Gaurav Yatras launched by BJP President JP Nadda and union Home minister Amit Shah .
Modi’s events have been marked by announcements of development projects with a promise of more .So for as the AAP is concerned ,it is the third and late entry into Gujarat ’s electoral field ,the Kejriwal –led AAP ,that is starring interest with aggressive campaigning and long list and attractive pre –poll ‘’ guarantees’ .The AAP is banking on’’ welfarsim ,the fact that it is a new alternative and its stress on day to day people issues to woo voters .‘’Kejiriwal has anchored his party’s campaign around a slew of sops ,including 300 units of free electricity per month ,free education in government schools ,unemployment dole ,Rs 1000 allowance to women and stipend to new lawyers .The AAP is likely to contest all the 182 assembly seats .The congress is unusually quiet ,almost absent party in the fray .Former President Rahul Gandhi ,busy with his Bharat Jodo Yastra that started on September 7 and will go for five months has remained almost absent .
However congress has presented before Gujarat voters achievements made by congress government in neighboring Rajasthan .The main poll planks of congress are inflation ,unemployment ,social harmony and anti incumbency against BJP .In the absence of any national leaders so far ,the congress Gujarat in-charge Raghu Sharma has been frequently visiting the state and leading its campaign .
State congress spokesperson Manish Doshi said the party’s poll campaign is in full swing and candidates will be announced soon .Thus it follows that this time the three cornered contest in Gujarat assembly elections is very interesting ,attractive ,daunting and tough and the whole country is witnessing the three way contest and only time will reveal the real truth and results of the Gujarat polls .All the three contenders and parties are making big efforts in the elections of the state and only time will tell the truth of the outcome of Gujarat elections .At the moment it is hoped that all the parties will abide by the formalities of the code of conduct when announced and will observe restraint during elections as the responsible political parties of the largest democracy of the world.

Email:--------------omkardattatray59@gmail.com