Srinagar, Oct 5: A new study has reconstructed 221 years of summer rainfall in the Kashmir Himalaya, revealing recurring droughts, prolonged wet spells and major shifts in hydroclimatic conditions between 1802 and 2023.

Published in Quaternary Science Advances, the study uses tree-ring records of Pinus wallichiana from the Pir Panjal Range to reconstruct May-August precipitation.
Researchers from the University of Kashmir and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology developed a 245-year tree-ring chronology for 1780-2023, based on 180 cores from 97 trees in the Ferozpora watershed.
The reconstruction showed a strong correlation of 0.61 with May-August precipitation and explained 38 per cent of observed rainfall variation at Srinagar.
The record identified 87 dry and 110 wet years. Major drought phases occurred in 1802-1809, 1819-1825, 1860-1871, 1934-1941 and 1962-1968. The year 1803 was the driest, with estimated summer rainfall of only about 5 mm.
Wet phases included 1810-1816, 1974-1982, 2003-2011 and 2013-2023, with the last being the longest continuous wet spell. The 1810-1816 period was the wettest, averaging 278.8 mm, while 1813 recorded an estimated 368 mm.
The researchers found that major wet and dry phases broadly matched climate patterns documented elsewhere in the northwestern Himalaya. Wavelet analysis also identified variability over 8-12, 12-20 and 64-80-year timescales, although no statistically significant direct link with individual climate indices was established.
The study provides a valuable long-term climate baseline for Kashmir, where instrumental records are relatively short. Its findings could strengthen understanding of drought risk, water resources, ecosystem resilience and future climate change across the Himalaya.