Due to extremely cold climate and heavy snowfall in the upper reaches of J&K during winter, human survival in the upper reaches becomes a nightmare due to which a majority of Pakistan sponsored terrorists are compelled to take refuge in inhabited areas and operate from there. However, while the harsh weather conditions may restrict their operational flexibility, to assume that it results in inactivity would be incorrect as winters do offer some distinct advantages to terrorists.

On receipt of information from informants regarding the presence of terrorists, security forces exploit their extraordinary ability to move swiftly and achieve surprise by using routes considered untraversable to reach the desired location. However, heavy snow accumulation severely restricts the speed of movement especially while negotiating seemingly impassable routes which significantly limits the scope of achieving surprise- a factor crucial for successful counter-terrorism operations.

Similarly, during winters, thorough search of houses is difficult because villagers cannot be made to remain outdoors for long periods due to the prevailing cold temperatures and searching a house with its occupants inside is an extremely dangerous proposition. Because in case there are terrorists hiding within then there’s a very high probability of the innocent occupants being killed or injured since these trapped terrorists will definitely open fire as they have no love lost for the hapless people living in the house.    

While winters restrict freedom of action enjoyed by terrorists, it nevertheless provides them with some definite advantages. One, in order to brave the freezing temperatures, Kashmiris dress up warmly when they are outdoors and so the people going about their work wearing pherens [a long, loose gown-like traditional Kashmiri upper garment] with their hands retracted to provide additional warmth and faces well covered with scarves and complimented with a variety of woollen headgear is a common sight making facial recognition very difficult.

The dress code ‘imposed’ by the bone-chilling cold on locals allows terrorists to move around with minimal fear of being identified. This in turns facilitates detailed reconnaissance to identify potential targets as well as the easiest access and safest escape routes. Furthermore, not only can grenades, pistols and even AK rifles easily be concealed underneath a pheren, they can be used with equal ease as well.

The biggest advantage is that a terrorist in traditional winter Kashmiri clothing with a weapon and/or grenade concealed within can leisurely scout for a suitable target and attacking it at an opportune moment. Terrorists prefer grenade attacks on security force personnel in crowded places because in order to prevent collateral damage, the response of security forces don’t react with full force and the ensuing melee allows the terrorists to escape.

Even though terrorists do abandon their hideouts located in the upper reaches during winters, they don’t shift en masse into villages for the fear of being compromised. Instead, they establish hideouts in thickly forested areas in the vicinity of remote villages that provide them a source of sustenance and temporary shelter during inclement weather.

Coming down to specifics, besides attacking members of the security forces and law enforcing agencies on routine duties, migrant workers and members of minority communities are the most vulnerable as targeting them furthers Rawalpindi’s objective of fuelling communal animosity.

Hence, security force personnel and members of law enforcement agencies need to avoid setting a fixed operating pattern while performing routine duties. In addition, enhancing surveillance by establishing appropriately equipped observation posts at vantage points backed by quick reaction teams would not only act as a deterrent but also facilitate in apprehending/neutralising terrorists involved in committing violent acts.

Most importantly, there’s a need to further improve the intelligence collection and collation apparatus. While cutting edge technology greatly enhances the timely availability and quality of intelligence inputs, the importance of ‘old school’ methods like use of human intelligence cannot be disregarded. A judicious blend of both ensures that gaps in information acquired through one source are corroborated by the other.

While terrorist activities in J&K have shown a significant decline in recent years, this is not because Pakistan army’s spy agency Inter Services Intelligence [ISI], which is overseeing Rawalpindi’s proxy war in J&K has scaled it down, but due to the sustained efforts of the Indian state, its security forces, intelligence and law enforcement agencies, and most importantly, the people of J&K.

Being fully aware of the inordinately high terrorist attrition rate due to sustained counter-terrorism operations, ISI has been working overtime to ensure that it can push-in a much larger number of terrorists into J&K and replenish their weapons and munitions stock throughout the year.

Since snow conditions in Kashmir region during winters preclude the scope of any meaningful infiltration through snow covered routes , the ISI is using those alternative routes and the recent apprehension of an armed Jaish-e-Mohammad [JeM] terrorist attempting to cross over in the Akhnoor sector of Jammu region is a case in point. Similarly, increased use of drones to drop arms and ammunition reflects ISI’s intention of keeping the pot boiling in Kashmir.

Presence of several senior Pakistan army officers in uniform attending the funeral prayer ceremony of terrorist leaders killed during the retributory attacks on their safe houses by the Indian armed forces conclusively exposes Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir’s pathetic terrorist fixation.

With the 27^th constitutional amendment giving him sweeping powers coupled with lifelong immunity from criminal persecution, there’s nothing to stop the field marshal from escalating violence levels- not only in J&K but far beyond.

There can be no two views that JeM chief Masood Azhar’s announcement that since “The enemies of Jaish [JeM] have put Hindu women into the army and set up female journalists against us," JeM was creating its women wing named Jamaat-ul-Mominat to "mobilise his women to compete and fight against them" is an ISI brainchild duly approved by Hinduphobic Field Marshal Munir

Rawalpindi has been brazenly waging a proxy war against India for more than three decades without any intention of pulling back, and with the international community behaving like mute spectators New Delhi has no other option but to take things in its own hands and retaliate appropriately.  

As it’s amply clear that neither can talks and terror can’t go together, nor can water and blood flow together, it’s high time the illusory Aman ki Asha [Hope for Peace] sentiment is laid to rest!