The Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir is on the cusp of an imminent climatic disaster and potential economic crisis.
Last year, a study carried out by the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) revealed that of the ten glaciers located in Jammu and Kashmir, most of them, if not all, are melting, but at a very slow pace.
According to the CSE study, the region’s largest glacier – Kolahoi -- has lost only 23 percent of its original area since 1962.
For those unaware, glaciers form due to accumulation of snow over thousands of years. The top layers of snow exert pressure on the lower layers transforming them into ice and this pressure plus the force of gravity moves glaciers at a snail’s pace.
This melting and flowing of solid rivers of snow and ice are crucial to meeting the agricultural and drinking water needs of Jammu and Kashmir, as well as the Indo-Gangetic plain.
According to climate experts, the danger is two-fold – (1) Rising temperatures and increased global warming can make melting glacial ice flow at speeds so fast that they can uproot and destroy natural vegetation and silt, as well as change the region’s topography, and (2) When the glacial melting rate is not as fast, then it affects upstream to downstream water flows severely, and when the water is less, cultivation and irrigation of land located downstream gets hit hard.
To get a better understanding of this natural phenomenon, Brighter Kashmir spoke to Professor Dr Ghulam Jeelani of the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Kashmir.
“The Pahalgam region of the Kashmir region has two major glaciers – the Kolahoi Glacier and the Shafat Glacier. Both of these glaciers are disappearing at a rapid rate because of increased global warming, and this has the potential of converting the Kashmir Valley from being a water-rich area to an area that is under severe water stress,” warned Professor Jeelani.
“Glacial melting is definitely affecting the agricultural sector and the horticulture of the region. The other danger that we see is thawing permafrost. When the earth remains frozen for at least two consecutive years, it is called permafrost. When permafrost melts, it can damage and destroy infrastructure like roads, houses and bridges,” he adds.
Over the years, Professor Jeelani has consistently warned that glaciers of the Kashmir Valley are in danger of vanishing sooner than later. He and other climate experts have further cautioned that large and unstable lakes of melted water have the potential of bursting their banks without warning and damage both land and population located downstream.
“Where Indian rivers are concerned, initially there could be a water flow increase, leading to widespread flooding, followed by severe water shortages as the glaciers that feed them disappear. This is having and will continue to have a huge impact on the Kashmir Valley’s water systems. The cost in terms of survival of humans too would be immense if the valley’s fertile fields and orchards also wither away due to a lack of water,” Professor Jeelani opined.
The main source of water for the Kashmir Valley is the Jhelum River. It is formed by the West Lidder River upstream of Pahalgam and the East Lidder River near Amarnath. Both these water tributaries join to form the Jhelum River near Anantnag.
Climate experts say the real danger is when the melting rate of glaciers surpasses the accumulation rate. Excessive melting strongly impacts stream flows and when melting rate is not as expected, the water table reduces.
Currently, the snow melting process above the Kashmir Valley has not matched the early onset of summer in March and April, putting enormous pressure on natural water supply. This delay is making climate experts and other planners quite nervous and concerned.
It has been postulated that “depleting stream flows in the Kashmir region can greatly affect the region’s water security and have a major impact on agriculture, horticulture, the farming community, hydropower generation and domestic water use…”
A mapping of the 147 glaciers of the Kashmir Himalayan region between 1980 and 2018 by the journal Environmental Monitoring and Assessment and Springer Nature found that glacial loss has been to the tune of 28.82 percent, and now.
The glaciers situated at altitudes of 4200 and 4400 m have receded more than those situated at altitudes higher than 4800 m. South facing glaciers are showing higher recession in comparison to north-facing glaciers because they are more exposed to radiation from the sun.
When negative glacier mass balance leads to decreased stream flows, urgent efforts and strategies are needed to cope with problems of both water scarcity and avoidable economic loss.