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The environmental costs of economic activity in J&K further expose the shortcomings of GDP as a comprehensive measure of progress. While tourism and hydropower drive revenue, they also cause ecological harm. The degradation of natural assets like Dal Lake, unregulated construction in hill towns, and deforestation are all symptoms of unsustainable development. Events like the 2014 floods, which caused losses estimated at ₹6,000 crore, led to a spike in GDP due to reconstruction activities. Yet this ‘growth’ came at the expense of lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems—none of which GDP accounts for.
Recently, I had an opportunity to watch a compelling podcast featuring Syed Agha Rouhullah which became main inspiration to write this paper. With fervent clarity, he asserted that every sector in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is gripped and riveted by crisis. He spoke passionately about the soaring cost of living, a stark departure and unimaginable from the region’s past, when affordability and accessibility were central to its quality and ease of life. He passionately highlighted the erosion of basic securities most notably, the shelter crisis. One of the most jarring issues he highlighted was the erosion of shelter as a basic human right. At one time, no individual in J&K was landless or homeless. Having a roof overhead was an unspoken social guarantee. Today, that foundational dignity is slipping away with ease of living withering and eroding and the silence around it is deafening slums are expanding, housing is increasingly becoming unaffordable, and thousands are caught in the cracks of displacement and economic exclusion. Yet, on the other hand, official data continues to report growth in GDP, per capita income, and a reduction in unemployment key indicators used to signal economic success progress and prosperity. I pondered and tried look at the GDP and it’s imperative and realities to express the weaknesses and strengths of the economy especially in J&K.
This contradiction between data and reality led me to explore the concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its relevance or limitations, in explaining the actual well-being of people, especially in a region like J&K. GDP, as a macroeconomic indicator, measures the total monetary value of goods and services produced within a region over a given period. J&K’s GDP for 2023–24 is estimated at ₹2.3 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of approximately 7–8% annually. Much of this growth is attributed to central government investments, increased infrastructure spending, and a rebound in tourism following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Major contributors to this GDP include horticulture, apple production alone accounts for more than ₹8,000 crore annually alongside handicrafts, tourism, and hydropower. However, GDP fails to account for the unquantified aspects of society: unpaid labor, environmental degradation, human rights, and inequality. In J&K, where historical conflict intersects with fragile ecology and developmental asymmetries, the GDP figure reveals very little about people’s quality of life. A rising GDP in such a context can be more of a distraction than a true reflection of progress.
Disconnect Between GDP and Lived Realities
However, GDP is a narrow metric. It fails to account for unpaid labor, inequality, environmental degradation, or social well-being. In a complex socio-political landscape like J&K, this limitation becomes glaring. While economic reports paint a picture of growth, the realities on the ground like poverty, unemployment, homelessness, and declining mental health suggest something entirely different. For instance, despite GDP growth, the NITI Aayog’s 2023 Multidimensional Poverty Index revealed that over 12% of J&K’s population still lives in multidimensional poverty. Rural areas, in particular, face persistent deprivation in access to healthcare, sanitation, nutrition, and education. Many families in remote districts like Kupwara or Kishtwar continue to experience food insecurity, especially during winters or times of conflict-related disruptions. The GDP does not capture whether a household has enough to eat or safe drinking water. The data on urban employment is very thin. The urban unemployment is fast increasing which has its manifestation through mushrooming informal sector and varied social issues in urban J&K.
The housing crisis is another example of this disconnect. Urban centers like Srinagar and Jammu have seen the proliferation of slums and informal settlements. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, nearly 20% of Srinagar’s residents live in substandard housing. These settlements often lack basic infrastructure such as clean water, electricity, and sanitation. While construction and real estate development are counted in GDP and contribute to economic output, they do little to address housing insecurity or uplift marginalized communities displaced by conflict or economic hardship.
Unemployment also remains a pressing concern. The unemployment rate in J&K was reported at 17.8% in 2023—significantly higher than the national average of 6.8%, as per CMIE data. Educated youth face limited job opportunities, and many are forced into underemployment or poorly paid work. For example, artisans working in J&K’s renowned handicraft sector, which contributes over ₹1,500 crore to the economy, often earn as little as ₹150–200 per day. Despite their skill and cultural significance, they are locked into exploitative systems with limited market access or institutional support. GDP growth in these sectors obscures the persistent problem of joblessness and low-quality employment.
The environmental costs of economic activity in J&K further expose the shortcomings of GDP as a comprehensive measure of progress. While tourism and hydropower drive revenue, they also cause ecological harm. The degradation of natural assets like Dal Lake, unregulated construction in hill towns, and deforestation are all symptoms of unsustainable development. Events like the 2014 floods, which caused losses estimated at ₹6,000 crore, led to a spike in GDP due to reconstruction activities. Yet this ‘growth’ came at the expense of lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems—none of which GDP accounts for.
Disasters and geographic vulnerability compound these issues. J&K lies in seismic Zone V, and its mountainous terrain makes it prone to earthquakes, landslides, and avalanches. These events disproportionately affect remote, economically disadvantaged communities. While rebuilding after such disasters boosts short-term GDP, it fails to reflect the underlying vulnerability and long-term human costs, including trauma and displacement.
Mental health and well-being are also deeply affected in J&K but remain invisible in GDP figures. A 2015 study by Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) found that nearly 45% of Kashmir’s adult population showed signs of mental distress, with 26% exhibiting symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The years of conflict, political uncertainty, and frequent restrictions have left emotional scars on individuals and communities alike. Economic indicators, however, remain silent on these human costs.
Furthermore, civil liberties and rights—a key pillar of a dignified life—are often compromised. Freedom of speech, access to justice, and the inclusion of marginalized communities like nomadic Gujjars and Bakarwals are frequently under threat. Despite contributing to the local economy through livestock and traditional knowledge systems, these communities face displacement and exclusion. GDP growth does not reflect the erosion of such rights or social justice concerns. For example, even as tourism boosts revenue, its benefits often bypass local populations and favor external investors—widening existing inequalities. Rethinking Progress in J&K: Beyond GDP
The limitations of GDP point toward an urgent need for alternative frameworks to evaluate development in J&K. Indicators like the Human Development Index (HDI), which incorporates life expectancy, literacy, and income, or the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which measures deprivation across health, education, and living standards, are more reflective of people’s actual conditions.
Another important metric is the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which adjusts for environmental degradation, income inequality, and social welfare. Applying GPI in J&K would reveal how deforestation, pollution, and poor labor conditions offset the gains seen in GDP. Moreover, happiness and well-being indices—like Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness—could help quantify what matters to communities: mental health, cultural preservation, and societal harmony. Toward a Holistic Development Model for J&K
To bridge the gap between GDP and the lived realities of J&K’s people, policymakers must prioritize inclusive and sustainable development. This involves investing in social infrastructure, such as healthcare and education, to address disparities in access. For example, expanding telemedicine services in remote areas and improving school infrastructure in rural J&K could enhance human development outcomes. Addressing unemployment requires creating quality jobs, particularly for the youth. Initiatives like skill development programs tailored to J&K’s handicraft and horticulture sectors, coupled with fair wage policies, could ensure that economic growth translates into tangible livelihoods. Strengthening local cooperatives and providing market access for artisans and farmers would further promote economic justice. Environmental sustainability must be a cornerstone of J&K’s development strategy. Regulating tourism to minimize ecological damage, promoting renewable energy, and investing in disaster-resilient infrastructure are critical steps. Community-led conservation efforts, such as those to preserve Dal Lake, could align economic growth with environmental stewardship. Finally, respecting rights and fostering social cohesion are essential for sustainable development. Inclusive governance, where local voices are heard, and policies that protect cultural identity and civil liberties can rebuild trust. Post-conflict reconciliation efforts, including mental health support and community rebuilding programs, are vital for long-term stability and well-being.
Need for Alternative Metrics
Given these discrepancies, it becomes evident that GDP alone is an inadequate measure of development in J&K. What the region needs is a multidimensional approach to assessing progress. Metrics such as the Human Development Index (HDI)—which considers health, education, and income which offer a more accurate picture. Similarly, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) reflects deeper deprivations in housing, sanitation, and nutrition. Environmental sustainability can be captured through tools like the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which adjusts GDP to account for environmental damage and income inequality. Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness (GNH) framework could also inspire a context-specific index for J&K, emphasizing mental health, cultural preservation, and community cohesion. To move toward a more inclusive development model, several priorities must be addressed. First, social infrastructure like healthcare and education must be expanded, particularly in rural and remote areas. Telemedicine and mobile health units could improve healthcare access, while investments in rural schools could narrow the education gap. Second, addressing unemployment requires job creation in high-potential sectors such as horticulture and handicrafts. Government-backed cooperatives, skill development programs, and fair wage policies could empower local producers. Third, environmental sustainability must become a policy cornerstone. Promoting responsible tourism, reforestation, and renewable energy could balance economic development with ecological preservation. Finally, development in J&K must be anchored in justice and inclusivity. Strengthening local governance, listening to community voices, and protecting civil liberties are essential to rebuilding social trust. Mental health support systems, community healing initiatives, and the protection of cultural identity are equally vital in a post-conflict society seeking resilience and renewal.
Bottom Line
GDP remains a useful tool to track economic activity, it is fundamentally limited in reflecting the true condition of society especially in a region like Jammu and Kashmir. A rising GDP cannot obscure the stark realities of poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, and social injustice. By shifting focus toward more holistic indicators such as HDI, MPI, GPI, GNH and well-being indices, J&K can chart a path toward meaningful, inclusive, and enduring development. Only then will growth translate into real human progress, ensuring that every individual in the region lives with dignity, security, and hope.
challenges and aspirations of J&K’s people. Rising GDP figures may reflect growth in sectors like tourism and infrastructure but obscure persistent issues like poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, and the erosion of rights. In J&K, where the socio-political and ecological context is complex, relying solely on GDP risks misrepresenting progress and neglecting the well-being of the population. By adopting alternative metrics like HDI, MPI, or GPI, and prioritizing inclusive, sustainable, and rights-based development, J&K can move toward a model of progress that truly reflects the happiness, welfare, and dignity of its people. Only then can development be meaningful, equitable, and enduring.
Email:-------------------------- hamwani24@gmail.com
The environmental costs of economic activity in J&K further expose the shortcomings of GDP as a comprehensive measure of progress. While tourism and hydropower drive revenue, they also cause ecological harm. The degradation of natural assets like Dal Lake, unregulated construction in hill towns, and deforestation are all symptoms of unsustainable development. Events like the 2014 floods, which caused losses estimated at ₹6,000 crore, led to a spike in GDP due to reconstruction activities. Yet this ‘growth’ came at the expense of lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems—none of which GDP accounts for.
Recently, I had an opportunity to watch a compelling podcast featuring Syed Agha Rouhullah which became main inspiration to write this paper. With fervent clarity, he asserted that every sector in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) is gripped and riveted by crisis. He spoke passionately about the soaring cost of living, a stark departure and unimaginable from the region’s past, when affordability and accessibility were central to its quality and ease of life. He passionately highlighted the erosion of basic securities most notably, the shelter crisis. One of the most jarring issues he highlighted was the erosion of shelter as a basic human right. At one time, no individual in J&K was landless or homeless. Having a roof overhead was an unspoken social guarantee. Today, that foundational dignity is slipping away with ease of living withering and eroding and the silence around it is deafening slums are expanding, housing is increasingly becoming unaffordable, and thousands are caught in the cracks of displacement and economic exclusion. Yet, on the other hand, official data continues to report growth in GDP, per capita income, and a reduction in unemployment key indicators used to signal economic success progress and prosperity. I pondered and tried look at the GDP and it’s imperative and realities to express the weaknesses and strengths of the economy especially in J&K.
This contradiction between data and reality led me to explore the concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its relevance or limitations, in explaining the actual well-being of people, especially in a region like J&K. GDP, as a macroeconomic indicator, measures the total monetary value of goods and services produced within a region over a given period. J&K’s GDP for 2023–24 is estimated at ₹2.3 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of approximately 7–8% annually. Much of this growth is attributed to central government investments, increased infrastructure spending, and a rebound in tourism following the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. Major contributors to this GDP include horticulture, apple production alone accounts for more than ₹8,000 crore annually alongside handicrafts, tourism, and hydropower. However, GDP fails to account for the unquantified aspects of society: unpaid labor, environmental degradation, human rights, and inequality. In J&K, where historical conflict intersects with fragile ecology and developmental asymmetries, the GDP figure reveals very little about people’s quality of life. A rising GDP in such a context can be more of a distraction than a true reflection of progress.
Disconnect Between GDP and Lived Realities
However, GDP is a narrow metric. It fails to account for unpaid labor, inequality, environmental degradation, or social well-being. In a complex socio-political landscape like J&K, this limitation becomes glaring. While economic reports paint a picture of growth, the realities on the ground like poverty, unemployment, homelessness, and declining mental health suggest something entirely different. For instance, despite GDP growth, the NITI Aayog’s 2023 Multidimensional Poverty Index revealed that over 12% of J&K’s population still lives in multidimensional poverty. Rural areas, in particular, face persistent deprivation in access to healthcare, sanitation, nutrition, and education. Many families in remote districts like Kupwara or Kishtwar continue to experience food insecurity, especially during winters or times of conflict-related disruptions. The GDP does not capture whether a household has enough to eat or safe drinking water. The data on urban employment is very thin. The urban unemployment is fast increasing which has its manifestation through mushrooming informal sector and varied social issues in urban J&K.
The housing crisis is another example of this disconnect. Urban centers like Srinagar and Jammu have seen the proliferation of slums and informal settlements. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, nearly 20% of Srinagar’s residents live in substandard housing. These settlements often lack basic infrastructure such as clean water, electricity, and sanitation. While construction and real estate development are counted in GDP and contribute to economic output, they do little to address housing insecurity or uplift marginalized communities displaced by conflict or economic hardship.
Unemployment also remains a pressing concern. The unemployment rate in J&K was reported at 17.8% in 2023—significantly higher than the national average of 6.8%, as per CMIE data. Educated youth face limited job opportunities, and many are forced into underemployment or poorly paid work. For example, artisans working in J&K’s renowned handicraft sector, which contributes over ₹1,500 crore to the economy, often earn as little as ₹150–200 per day. Despite their skill and cultural significance, they are locked into exploitative systems with limited market access or institutional support. GDP growth in these sectors obscures the persistent problem of joblessness and low-quality employment.
The environmental costs of economic activity in J&K further expose the shortcomings of GDP as a comprehensive measure of progress. While tourism and hydropower drive revenue, they also cause ecological harm. The degradation of natural assets like Dal Lake, unregulated construction in hill towns, and deforestation are all symptoms of unsustainable development. Events like the 2014 floods, which caused losses estimated at ₹6,000 crore, led to a spike in GDP due to reconstruction activities. Yet this ‘growth’ came at the expense of lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems—none of which GDP accounts for.
Disasters and geographic vulnerability compound these issues. J&K lies in seismic Zone V, and its mountainous terrain makes it prone to earthquakes, landslides, and avalanches. These events disproportionately affect remote, economically disadvantaged communities. While rebuilding after such disasters boosts short-term GDP, it fails to reflect the underlying vulnerability and long-term human costs, including trauma and displacement.
Mental health and well-being are also deeply affected in J&K but remain invisible in GDP figures. A 2015 study by Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) found that nearly 45% of Kashmir’s adult population showed signs of mental distress, with 26% exhibiting symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The years of conflict, political uncertainty, and frequent restrictions have left emotional scars on individuals and communities alike. Economic indicators, however, remain silent on these human costs.
Furthermore, civil liberties and rights—a key pillar of a dignified life—are often compromised. Freedom of speech, access to justice, and the inclusion of marginalized communities like nomadic Gujjars and Bakarwals are frequently under threat. Despite contributing to the local economy through livestock and traditional knowledge systems, these communities face displacement and exclusion. GDP growth does not reflect the erosion of such rights or social justice concerns. For example, even as tourism boosts revenue, its benefits often bypass local populations and favor external investors—widening existing inequalities. Rethinking Progress in J&K: Beyond GDP
The limitations of GDP point toward an urgent need for alternative frameworks to evaluate development in J&K. Indicators like the Human Development Index (HDI), which incorporates life expectancy, literacy, and income, or the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), which measures deprivation across health, education, and living standards, are more reflective of people’s actual conditions.
Another important metric is the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which adjusts for environmental degradation, income inequality, and social welfare. Applying GPI in J&K would reveal how deforestation, pollution, and poor labor conditions offset the gains seen in GDP. Moreover, happiness and well-being indices—like Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness—could help quantify what matters to communities: mental health, cultural preservation, and societal harmony. Toward a Holistic Development Model for J&K
To bridge the gap between GDP and the lived realities of J&K’s people, policymakers must prioritize inclusive and sustainable development. This involves investing in social infrastructure, such as healthcare and education, to address disparities in access. For example, expanding telemedicine services in remote areas and improving school infrastructure in rural J&K could enhance human development outcomes. Addressing unemployment requires creating quality jobs, particularly for the youth. Initiatives like skill development programs tailored to J&K’s handicraft and horticulture sectors, coupled with fair wage policies, could ensure that economic growth translates into tangible livelihoods. Strengthening local cooperatives and providing market access for artisans and farmers would further promote economic justice. Environmental sustainability must be a cornerstone of J&K’s development strategy. Regulating tourism to minimize ecological damage, promoting renewable energy, and investing in disaster-resilient infrastructure are critical steps. Community-led conservation efforts, such as those to preserve Dal Lake, could align economic growth with environmental stewardship. Finally, respecting rights and fostering social cohesion are essential for sustainable development. Inclusive governance, where local voices are heard, and policies that protect cultural identity and civil liberties can rebuild trust. Post-conflict reconciliation efforts, including mental health support and community rebuilding programs, are vital for long-term stability and well-being.
Need for Alternative Metrics
Given these discrepancies, it becomes evident that GDP alone is an inadequate measure of development in J&K. What the region needs is a multidimensional approach to assessing progress. Metrics such as the Human Development Index (HDI)—which considers health, education, and income which offer a more accurate picture. Similarly, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) reflects deeper deprivations in housing, sanitation, and nutrition. Environmental sustainability can be captured through tools like the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which adjusts GDP to account for environmental damage and income inequality. Bhutan’s Gross National Happiness (GNH) framework could also inspire a context-specific index for J&K, emphasizing mental health, cultural preservation, and community cohesion. To move toward a more inclusive development model, several priorities must be addressed. First, social infrastructure like healthcare and education must be expanded, particularly in rural and remote areas. Telemedicine and mobile health units could improve healthcare access, while investments in rural schools could narrow the education gap. Second, addressing unemployment requires job creation in high-potential sectors such as horticulture and handicrafts. Government-backed cooperatives, skill development programs, and fair wage policies could empower local producers. Third, environmental sustainability must become a policy cornerstone. Promoting responsible tourism, reforestation, and renewable energy could balance economic development with ecological preservation. Finally, development in J&K must be anchored in justice and inclusivity. Strengthening local governance, listening to community voices, and protecting civil liberties are essential to rebuilding social trust. Mental health support systems, community healing initiatives, and the protection of cultural identity are equally vital in a post-conflict society seeking resilience and renewal.
Bottom Line
GDP remains a useful tool to track economic activity, it is fundamentally limited in reflecting the true condition of society especially in a region like Jammu and Kashmir. A rising GDP cannot obscure the stark realities of poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, and social injustice. By shifting focus toward more holistic indicators such as HDI, MPI, GPI, GNH and well-being indices, J&K can chart a path toward meaningful, inclusive, and enduring development. Only then will growth translate into real human progress, ensuring that every individual in the region lives with dignity, security, and hope.
challenges and aspirations of J&K’s people. Rising GDP figures may reflect growth in sectors like tourism and infrastructure but obscure persistent issues like poverty, unemployment, environmental degradation, and the erosion of rights. In J&K, where the socio-political and ecological context is complex, relying solely on GDP risks misrepresenting progress and neglecting the well-being of the population. By adopting alternative metrics like HDI, MPI, or GPI, and prioritizing inclusive, sustainable, and rights-based development, J&K can move toward a model of progress that truly reflects the happiness, welfare, and dignity of its people. Only then can development be meaningful, equitable, and enduring.
Email:-------------------------- hamwani24@gmail.com
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