As Bangladesh plunged into chaos and crisis and ultimately the ouster of an elected Prime Minister; the state of Tripura in northeast also came into focus of both the policy makers and also those tracking geo-strategic situations in the region.
Four key dimensions always revolve around Bangladesh-Tripura relationships. They are language, civilisational, historical and cultural. Now comes perhaps a more important aspect the Security.
Following the unrest in Bangladesh there are apprehensions that now 'armed militants' in various northeastern states could again take shelter in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh. It is a known fact that the Paresh Baurah faction of ULFA has still not agreed for talks with New Delhi. Pakistan's closer ties with Bangladesh post-Hasina ouster has understandably given a booster dosage for the Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction.
Amid such a situation, the security agencies may face yet another complication and that is the 'manpower shortage' of central and para military forces. Of course, Tripura falls under the 'peace zone' in the northeast in military parlance along with Meghalaya and Mizoram. Compared to Tripura, Mizoram probably has more central forces. Of course the Myanmar border makes things complex. However, post-chaotic upheavals in Bangladesh, analysts in Delhi say there could be a need for an additional security support system for Tripura.
A retired Lt General said: "As a retired uniformed officer we generally do not speak on hardcore military matters. But it is also true that in contrast to Tripura and Mizoram though dealing with multiple ceasefires and 28-year-old pending peace talks Nagaland has 14-15 battalions." In fact, in 2024 when violence started, the central forces actually faced 'occupational hazards' in the absence of enforcement of the provisions of the Armed Forces Special Power Act (AFSPA) in some vulnerable pockets of Jiribam.
Even old record wise, the retired officer said, the Assam Rifles has a good reputation both in Tripura and also other states in the region as an anti-insurgency crack team.
Old timers in the decades old force recalled how in 1986, due to a surge in the militant activities, the Tripura government had requisitioned for additional central forces, preferring Assam Rifles over all others.
In fact, the 23rd Assam Rifles Battalion then was placed under the state government and deployed in the Ampinagar areas.
Another Assam Rifles Battalion, which was still in the process of being raised somewhere in Assam, was also allotted and moved quickly to Tripura in 1986 for adequate deployment in vulnerable areas.

Faultline matters : Pakistan makes deep penetration in Bangladesh

"India not only spent seven thousand crore of rupees for Liberation War of Bangladesh but also sacrificed lives of 3630 officers and jawan of Indian army, where 213 officers and jawans were missing and about 9856 officers and jawans were wounded.
The bloods of these soldiers are mixed with the soil of Independent Bangladesh". --
book ' Contribution of Tripura in Liberation War of Bangladesh' penned by Salam Azad, writer and human rights activist, Dhaka
Time maybe running out, New Delhi has to act quickly .... Pakistan makes deep penetration in Bangladesh
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said in Washington that he had brief discussion on the current situation in Bangladesh with newly-appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
"Yes, we had a brief discussion on Bangladesh. I don't think it's appropriate that I get into more details," Jaishankar told a group of Indian reporters.
In Delhi, External Affairs Ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said :
"We keep an eye on all activities around the country and in the region, as well as all activities affecting national security, and the government will take appropriate steps".
The remarks came close on the heels of a high-profile delegation level visit from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to Bangladesh. Post-August, Bangladesh is a 'different country' for India in more ways than one. Major General Shahid Amir Afsar led the Pakistani military delegation.
For the first time in several decades, the head of Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, visited Bangladesh.
ISI chief Lt Gen Asim Malik arrived in Dhaka via Dubai and interacted among others by Lt Gen Muhammad Faizur Rahman, Quarter Master General (QMG) of the Bangladesh Army.
Lt. Gen Rahman for his part is known for his leanings towards Islamists. Obviously there is a speculation on the real purpose behind such a well publicised visit.
It is possible that an intelligence network will be established or streamlined between Dhaka and Islamabad. This does augur matters of concern for security of the northeastern states of India. Since the turmoil following former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's ouster, Muhammad Yunus-led Bangladesh has grown comfortably closer to Pakistan.
Bangladesh's decision to grant a visa to any Pakistani citizen without security clearance has further raised eyebrows. Faultline matters a lot in geo-strategic matters, you leave a 'vacuum' and there will be others to chip in.
This is precisely happening in Bangladesh vis-a-vis all external players - Pakistan, China and even the US and the so-called 'deep state'.
“The rapid Bangladeshi and Pakistani army officers’ visits at this time is rather surprising. It indicates a hurried move to achieve a military-security objective within a short period of time.
However, there is no knowing what the Indian response to these back-to-back meetings and their likely objectives on the ground (in Bangladesh) will have in the coming weeks and months,” a retired Bangladeshi general, requesting anonymity, was quoted by NorthEast News. It ought to be also clarified that the Bangladesh's cooperation with India on countering Indian insurgent groups is not quite a Sheikh Hasina-Narendra Modi bond phenomenon.
There was heavy crackdown against the Indian insurgent groups by the perceived to be “pro-India” Awami League government in Bangladesh even during the stint of Manmohan Singh government in Delhi in 2010 and 2011.
Key ULFA rebel leaders from Assam including the likes of Anup Chetia; ULFA chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa; foreign secretary Sashadhar Choudhury; finance secretary Chitraban Hazarika; and deputy chief of military operations Raju Barua were handed over to India between 2009 and 2015.
However, it is a known fact that the Paresh Baurah faction of ULFA has still not agreed for talks with New Delhi.
Pakstan's closer ties with Bangladesh post-Hasina ouster has understandably given a booster dosage and enhanced bargaining power for the Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction. This group is still hiding and operating from the jungles along the India-Myanmar border and also has some associations with elements in China.
There are chances now Pakistan and Bangladesh will seek enhanced ties between Karachi and Chittagong ports in Bangladesh. The Chittagong port is vital even for Indian trade ties. Located in Bangladesh's port city of Chittagong and on the banks of the Karnaphuli River, the port handles over 70 percent of Bangladesh's export-import trade.
Security analysts say that had India got control over Chittagong port in 1947, the entire about eastern and northeastern region would have been different.
The Chittagong Port is much nearer to India's northeastern region than its own port of Kolkata. The Chittagong Port is also easier to access through proper multimodal connectivity, while one can reach Kolkata port and the city only via the overland narrow Siliguri corridor -- called the ‘Chicken’s Neck’.
Chittagong Port would have actually played a game-changer for India’s Act East and Neighbourhood First Policy. But the reality of 2025 January is different.
As Pakistan bolsters ties with Bangladesh, are we to pose the same old question, did we 'mistake' or was it a master stroke that India banked a lot on its friendship with Sheikha Hasina and her party Awami League. Two elements could have worked -- shortsightedness of New Delhi policy makers since 2009-10 and a little bit of "big-headedness" that we can't be wrong.
On the other hand, the establishment of direct sea links, strained since the 1971 independence war when Bangladeshi nationalists broke away from West Pakistan, has marked a historic thawing of relations between Dhaka and Islamabad.
The new regime in Dhaka has removed previous restrictions that mandated physical inspections of cargo from Pakistan. Pakistan will now begin training the Bangladesh Army in February 2025, strengthening military ties between the two nations. Bangladesh will also reportedly join Pakistan in the "Aman 2025" joint naval exercises at Karachi port. All these have potential to reshape the power dynamics in South Asia.

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