India and Russia have had long years of friendship and trust, particularly since the Indo-Soviet Treaty of 1971. Russia was then a part of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). But times have drastically changed since. After the dismantling of the Union in 1992, Russian power has considerably diminished making its economy truncated and weak. Except the military prowess, Russia has become, in its economy, another developing country. India on the other hand, has been growing and is a threshold world power.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically changed the geo-political and security scenario in the Eastern Europe. Russia will come out of the war weaker than before. Russia’s ambitious President Vladimir Putin’s grand idea to reunite former USSR constituents is next to impossible. The war in Ukraine has exposed Russian lack of far sight and military intelligence. Putin falsely imagined that he would walk-in to Ukraine in the so-called Special Military Operation and chip-away Russian-speaking Ukrainian territories. Little did he foresee that European Union will rally behind Ukraine, also, America could not stay away from any international conflict. American economy and foreign policy thrives on international military operations.
India was really doing well in distancing from Russia, being wary of China and moving closer to United States. The first NDA government made a radical departure from India’s conventional foreign policy by stitching smart strategic alliances and partners. New Delhi broke several conventions in making alliances, especially with Israel, Japan and joining the Quad. During the first term of Donald Trump’s presidency, India deepened its ties with United States. However, the Ukraine war suddenly seems to change the power equations.
India was buying defence equipments from Russia for a long time evading American sanctions called CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act). It did not cause any friction with United States as there was no war Russia was involved in at that time. But during the war, America and its allies imposed multiple sanctions on Russia. Once again, New Delhi continued to buy Russian oil, at this time, on a discounted price. Although it helped smooth management of India’s energy requirements and supposedly, India was supplying processed oil to European countries. This raised the hackles of Donald Trump who had promised in his election campaign for the second term to end the war in Ukraine, in ‘24 hours’. That could have been an election gimmick but, Trump has been so far unsuccessfully trying to bring about a peace deal and a ceasefire.
As Trump took strict measures against India mainly high tariffs, and a temperamental divide between Trump Administration and Indian leadership, the rift between two countries began to widen. Trump’s claim on brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan early this year was debunked by Indian leadership. Trump contended that India was aiding Russia in the war by buying its oil. New Delhi decided to defend its action in the name of managing its energy needs and with its fascination for an independent foreign policy. What is more, New Delhi seems to have move closer to Russia and even China.
One had expected the Modi Administration to learn from India’s past mistake in its foreign policy – Non-Alignment and complete independence. Being independent and its euphemism, non-aligned, is an impractical proposition. No country in the world, however powerful, can be independent; it has to remain in a relation of inter-dependence with several countries. India’s non-alignment caused heavy cost to its economy which was slowly growing since independence. It had to spend enormously in defence purchases to guard itself against Pakistani incursion and aggression and Chinese expansion. New Delhi fought wars with both and lost against China ceding territories.
Look at the other two models, Germany and Japan and the European Union. Both these models have succeeded whereas India’s practice of non-alignment has not. Germany and Japan did not spend on defence and rose to become big economic powers whereas the European Union sacrificed their sovereignty partially for the sake of collective growth and prosperity. India tried to maintain so-called equi-distance from both the super powers, remained non-aligned and paid heavily. As it was correcting the fault lines, it fell again into the old trap as evidenced after the Ukraine war.
It is time to question the indispensability of leaning on Russia for weapons and oil. Can India defend itself against China or compete with its on its own despite Russian sympathy? Will it not need friends and partners in containing China? Is New Delhi expected to distance Russia from China and Pakistan? Trump is a capricious political leader, capable of changing his mind in less than 24 hours. Is it advisable to move away from the solid foundations of bilateralism built between America and India even upto the first term of Trump presidency? Indian leadership should be discerning enough to separate America as a country from Trump’s tantrums. At any rate, this is Trump’s last term for another three years.
With the formation of Quad, United States and other two members Japan and Australia considered India an ally in the Indo-Pacific region and a counter-balance to China. US had disowned Pakistan and was checkmating China in many ways; both China and Pakistan are antagonist to India. It is India’s ace diplomat Chanakya, who had said in his Arthashashtra, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”. So that made America and India natural allies. But at the moment, it is no so. That is why New Delhi must engage in introspection in its international relations.
I guess many apologists will kick the dust to say one is advocating a pro-American policy compromising our national prestige, sovereignty etc. I am sure the best way to defend one’s national interest is to keep the country safe, citizens healthy and developed. It does not matter whether one does it through non-alignment or alliance building. Prime Minister Modi has demonstrated his unique skill of building inter-personal relations with world leaders, be it Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel who displayed Modi’s photo along with other friendly leaders I election campaign. Modi had a great personal equation with Shinzo Abe of Japan that helped India with investment in roads and bullet trains. Even with Donald Trump, Modi was at so much ease that he announced support publicly in an event called ‘Howdy Modi’. Trump called Modi a personal friend as Indians regarded Trump as a friend of India. All these could not change so drastically unless the communication at the top has broken.
In this connection, I have mentioned earlier Poland that has similar security situation as that of India, both bordering two authoritarian powers, expansionist China and aggressive Russia which is at war in Ukraine. Poland has stitched strategic partnerships, joined NATO, the European Union, has bilateral relations with big European countries and is friendly with the United States. Unlike other European countries, it was colonised and under Communist rule. Now it is growing as a democracy and a promising economy. It is hoped that a strong and decisive leader like Narendra Modi will make the course-correction in due time.

Email:---------------------------dr.dkgiri@gmail.com