Legalising Authoritarianism

With a compliant government cleverly put in place by Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir last year, passing of the contentious 27th constitutional amendment was as simple as cutting butter with a hot knife. While incarceration of key members of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf [PTI] party including its chief former Prime Minister Imran Khan ensured there were hardly any protests against these sweeping amendments that has legalised authoritarianism, this development found only perfunctory mention in the media.
However, even though it's an internal matter of Pakistan, the dangers that these amendments portend are so grave that they didn’t escape notice of the otherwise traditionally reticent United Nations.
Noting that "Pakistan's hastily adopted [27th] constitutional amendments seriously undermine judicial independence, and raise grave concerns about military accountability and respect for the rule of law,” [Emphasis added], UN Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has rightly opined that “These changes, taken together, risk subjugating the judiciary to political interference and executive control.” Such a serious indictment by the UN is unprecedented in recent times and being an independent and unbiased observation, highlights the potential dangers of military authoritarianism.

The Architect

Even a novice would unhesitatingly tell you that the 27th constitutional amendment is the brainchild of Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, as it’s he who gains most from it. So, it transpires that just three months after he told Daily Jang newspaper senior editor Suhail Warraich that “God has made me protector of the country; I do not desire any position other than that,” the Field Marshal has exacted his pound of flesh from the Shehbaz Sharif run coalition government he installed by ensuring that he becomes Pakistan’s unchallenged Tsar.
With the 27th constitutional amendment formalising the “hybrid” system of civil-military governance that Field Marshal Munir enforced in 2018 and thereafter "stealing" the people's mandate, the ‘silent coup’ that he brazenly orchestrated immediately after becoming the army chief is now complete. As Chief of Defence Forces [CDF], Field Marshal Munir will not only become the overall commander of the armed forces, but also exercise full control over the Strategic Plans Division [SPD] which manages Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
With a tenure fixed at five years, Field Marshal Munir will now serve till 2030, and will thus be at the helm of affairs during the general elections in Pakistan scheduled in 2029 and in a position to influence its outcome. The most surprising part about the 27th constitutional amendment is that while only a simple majority in parliament is required to dismiss a serving prime minister, the CDF can only be removed by a two-third majority in parliament. Most importantly, this amendment grants CDF Field Marshal Munir life-time immunity from persecution.
In short, the 27th constitutional amendment has made Field Marshal Munir unassailable for life.

Implications for India

New Delhi needs to take a serious note of the concerns voiced by the UN Commissioner for Human Rights regarding the “grave concerns about military accountability” that the 27th constitutional amendment has institutionalised. This issue becomes all the more critical for India as it's already facing a more than three-decade-old full blown proxy war unleashed by the Pakistan army.
What needs to be noted is that while previous Pakistan army chiefs at least pretended to be making efforts to mend fences with India, Field Marshal Munir has been spewing anti-India venom from day one. Being elevated to the post of CDF with Pakistan’s entire armed forces under his command and the complete lack of military accountability could well push the impulsive Field Marshal to undertake a military misadventure as things are presently not going too well for the Field Marshal on the internal security front.
In April, he had boasted that "We will beat the hell out of these terrorists [Baloch freedom fighters] very soon,” but this hasn’t happened yet and it doesn’t seem likely in the near future at least. Similarly, while Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] terrorists are bleeding the Pakistani security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [KP], Kabul has demonstrated its determination to counter Pakistan’s foray into Afghanistan with a strong military response along the Durand Line.
His remedy for resolving the Indus Water Treaty [IWT] impasse further exposes his immaturity and proclivity for playing to the domestic gallery is equally disturbing. What else does one make out of his “The Indus river is not the Indians’ family property. Humein missilon ki kami nahin hai, al-Hamdulillah [we have no shortage of missiles, Praise be to God]” remark? Similarly, isn’t his threat that “We will wait for India to build a dam, and when it does so, phir 10 missiles sey faarigh kar dengey [we will destroy it with 10 missiles]” an equally intemperate statement?
Field Marshal Munir’s “we are a nuclear nation” brag followed by his threat that “If we think we are going down, we’ll take half the world down with us” though an exaggeration, does betray his skewed belief that only violence can solve problems. An irrational mind in control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is a matter of global concern.

Prognosis

Though he has a habit issuing threats at the drop of the hat, Field Marshal Munir knows very well that crossing swords with the Indian army would be suicidal. However, by repeatedly making provocative statements pregnant with communal content and accusing New Delhi of supporting TTP and Baloch freedom fighters, he’s only whetting public appetite for massive military action against India.
There’s no doubt that the heady mix of radical religious thoughts and ultra-nationalism fed to the masses in Pakistan ever since its creation has got a further shot in the arm through Field Marshal Munir’s provocative tirade. Resultantly, anti-India feelings in Pakistan are rapidly reaching near a tipping point and this doesn’t augur well for two main reasons. One, the inimical environment prevailing in Pakistan precludes the scope of holding any meaningful Indo-Pak dialogue to usher normalcy. Two, there's mounting public pressure for orchestrating some type of violence in India.
Any military commander in his right senses would refrain from undertaking direct military action that has no scope of success whatsoever. Yet, in order to assuage public ire, Pakistan’s CDF will have to do something, and the only option he has is to enlarge the scope of proxy war against India even at the risk of inviting retribution, as it’s the ultimate panacea for the indoctrinated masses in Pakistan.Readers would recall that during a debate in the National Assembly in 2020, Pakistan’s Science and Technology Minister Fawad Chaudhry proudly took credit for the 2019 suicide car bomb terrorist in Pulwama [J&K] by boasting that “Humne Hindustan ko ghus ke maara (We entered and hit India in their own home),” adding that “Our success in Pulwama is a success of this nation …”
Similarly, shortly after last month’s Red Fort suicide car bomb terrorist attack in New Delhi, so-called former ‘Prime Minister of Pakistan occupied Jammu and Kashmir [PoJK] Chaudhary Anwarul Haq told the PoJK Assembly that “I had said earlier [that] if you [India] keep bleeding Balochistan, we will hit you from Red Fort to the forests of Kashmir. By the grace of Allah, we have done it…our brave men have done it.”
With lawmakers proudly accepting responsibility for terrorist attacks inside India, and Field Marshal Munir openly supporting terrorism in J&K by saying that Pakistan will “never abandon Kashmiris in their heroic struggle [a euphemism for terrorism] against Indian occupation,’ it’s abundantly clear that in Pakistan, anti-India activity is the fail-safe prescription for public appeasement. Hence, public pressure can well create desperate times for Field Marshal Munir and force him to take desperate measures.
So, New Delhi needs to remain prepared for a long haul.

Email:-----------------------nileshkunwar.56@gmail.com