Unwarranted Sensationalism

While the revelation that China had provided real-time military intelligence to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, the issue of Sino-Pak collusivity has taken centre stage. While this isn’t an overnight development, but just to score brownie points, some political interests have unfortunately tried to portray it thus, claiming that their warnings on this critical issue were ignored by the government.  

This motivated allegation clearly suggests that clear indications of the conspicuous Sino-Pak nexus and consequent possibility of a two-front war was disregarded or downplayed by those concerned. It has expectedly created suspicions in the minds of many, with some even questioning the basic professional competence of those responsible for drawing up the country’s defence plans and foreign policy.

Friends and Interests

Whereas the simple "There are no permanent friends or enemies in geopolitics, only permanent interests" adage explains why nations behave the way they do, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” maxim  accurately explicates how common interests can forge an alliance against an adversary.  Since both Beijing and Islamabad have an axe to grind with New Delhi, the emergence of an anti-India Sino-Pak nexus is but natural.

So, while one can appreciate Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi’s contention that “India’s biggest foreign policy challenge has been to keep Pakistan and China separated” and his emotional “But we failed, and they have destroyed the Indian foreign policy” lament, but isn’t assuming that diplomacy can prevent convergence of mutual interests of two countries a case of great expectations?

And with Indian National Congress [INC] Party member and the then Indian Defence Minister AK Antony himself admitting way back in November 2009 that "The nexus between China and Pakistan in the military sphere remains an area of great concern,” for the INC to now suggest that Sino-Pak collusivity is a sudden development and going about crying “foul” is both brazen and unwarranted politicisation of a national security issue.

For the Record

Since armies the world over plan and prepare themselves to fight and win in the ‘worst case scenario’, it’s but natural that the Indian armed forces have always factored-in the inevitable likelihood of Sino-Pak military collusion in its war plans. Similarly, diplomats and analysts too have been labouring on this issue ad nauseam. A few illustrative examples:

One of the reasons why the then Indian army chief Gen [Later Field Marshal] SFHJ [Sam] Manekshaw delayed the 1971 war for the liberation of Bangladesh until December was to ensure that China could not come to Pakistan’s assistance by opening a new front as winter snow would have rendered mountain passes along the Sino-Indian border impassable.

As early as 1986, the then Indian army chief Gen K Sundarji released Indian army’s Perspective Plan 2000 – a 15year military vision document that addressed the issue of Sino-Pak military collusivity and recommended “offensive deterrence” against Pakistan by making territorial gains and “dissuasive deterrence” against China by adopting a forward defensive posture by occupying dominant terrain to ensure India’s territorial integrity.

In a piece published in 2012, India’s former Foreign Secretary and Padma Shri awardee Kanwal Sibal had prognosed that “Pakistan is determined to confront India, and China is intent on giving Pakistan the means and the confidence to continue this confrontation,” adding that “We now have the problematic situation of having two nuclear powers on our borders, with both collaborating with each other to put constraints on India.” He had even drawn attention to the fact that “China has stepped up its presence in POK even as it has begun to question implicitly our sovereignty over J&K.”

In 2017, the then Indian army chief Gen Bipin Rawat spoke about the inevitability of India having to fight a two-and-a-half front war- China and Pakistan being the two main fronts with internal threats representing the half front.

 Actions Not Rhetoric Needed

In an interview with Hindustan Times editor-in-chief Shahi Shekar during the Kargil war, Indian army chief Gen VP Malik had said, “National security is the biggest issue. It is a matter of great sadness that our political parties are publicly raising their fingers on the issue of national security. Of course raising questions is your right, but instead of doing it publicly, discuss it in the meeting, it would do more good.”

Isn’t the angst of a former army chief precipitated by petty politicking on national security matters justified? And doesn’t his simple suggestion to undertake meaningful discussions rather than engage in open-ended verbal slugfests make perfect sense? Hence, the ubiquitous threat of Sino-Pak military collusivity needs to be unitedly addressed by all political parties in a constructive way with the due diligence that it deserves.

Since China enjoys an overwhelming quantitative and qualitative superiority in terms of military assets vis a vis India, creating a credible deterrent capability is both an extremely capital intensive and time consuming process. Many opine that China's top leadership is mature enough not to engage in a direct confrontation with India, and this viewpoint definitely has merit. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about Pakistan where the military never tires of flexing its muscles.

Yet, China would be more than delighted to see an Indo-Pak faceoff/confrontation for three reasons:

One, Since China considers India a potential regional rival, forcing New Delhi to invest in expensive military hardware would significantly retard the pace of India’s economic growth.

Two, due to its precarious financial condition, Pakistan would be compelled to restrict its purchase of advanced weaponry only from Beijing, and that too on credit and at an exorbitant cost. This would push Islamabad deeper into Beijing’s debt trap facilitating further exploitation of Pakistan’s mineral resources.

Three, Beijing could easily pass-off munitions whose reliability is suspect due to vintage or under trial giving its armament industry a boost by testing new munitions as well as through sale of unwanted ordnance that otherwise were required to be destroyed.  

As Rawalpindi has easy access to state-of-the-art Chinese weaponry as well as real time intelligence, New Delhi can neither afford to be complacent nor tardy in taking appropriate countermeasures against Sino-Pak military collusion.

And with Pakistan’s de facto ruler Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir announcing that “God made me protector of the country,” declaring that his “greatest desire is martyrdom,” and declaring his solemn “duty to avenge the blood of every Pakistani,” not to forget the “we’ll take down half the world with us” threat, it’s better for India to be prepared.

After all, how can a hallucinating Field Marshal ever be trusted?

Email:------------------------nileshkunwar.56@gmail.com