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Post Covid-19 : A new World Order?

October 31, 2020 | Yasir Yousuf

Novel Corona Virus declared by World Health Organization (WHO) as COVID-19 as a pandemic affecting more than 215 countries worldwide is an infectious disease caused by a new virus appeared in Wuhan in China first. The disease claimed to have originated

from the largest wet market of seafoods in Chinese Wuhan province locates only a few kilometres away from the world-famous Wuhan Lab While all countries have adopted tough measures to handle the pandemic, the causality it has inflicted worldwide is unprecedented as millions and millions of people are infected with the virus while several lakhs have succumbed to death. Besides, the loss of human life, the virus has serious economic and political ramifications for the countries and the world order as we know at large.
Political implications of this pandemic are no less significant than the economic one as well. The Corona has been the game changer of world politics. Hitherto, the world politics dominated by the U.S and Europe are found to be napping with the worst hit by the virus. The Covid-19 pandemic is reshaping geopolitics. Escalating tensions between the United States and China are the clearest immediate-term outcome.COVID-19 will fundamentally transform the world as we know it: the world order, its balance of power, traditional conceptions of national security, and the future of globalization. The lethal combination of an interconnected world and a deadly virus without a cure is taking humanity into uncharted waters. When we emerge from the lockdown, we must be ready to confront new political and social realities.
The first thing you all must know about any World Order is that no world order is permanent. You must have read The rise and the fall of the great powers by Paul Kennedy.
The second thing you must know is that Any world order requires a stable distribution of power and broad acceptance of the rules that govern the conduct of international relations. We have seen the rise of Athens and consequent Peloponnesian war, latter we have seen world order established by Congress of Vienna in 1815 and later the world order established by America after WWI and ordered it in practical sense after WWII. The rise and fall of major powers determines the viability of the prevailing order, since changes in economic strength, political cohesion, and military power shape what states can and are willing to do beyond their borders.

Crumbling world order : USA vs China ?


Now coming back to the world COVID-19 pandemic and crumbling world order. There are four things you must know and try to
Comprehend and read more on this. There are some important questions being talked about these days like whether USA would continue to be a global hegemon or not? Will China lead the post pandemic world? What will happen to globalization? Will democracy succeed again against authoritarianism?
Will international cooperation gain a new momentum or would it be reversed?
These all questions are being debated nowadays .If you see Foreign affairs magazine, it is full of these stories.
Let's debate on some recent writings to find out answers for above questions.
Some argue that the post pandemic world order will be china driven. The reason is Trumps, America first policy, not leading the world which gave china a space. Fareed Zakaria did earlier talk about the rise of the rest. Chinese firms such as Alibaba have offered to give test kits in millions not the US. Since Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States, many analysts and policymakers inside and outside the United States have bemoaned his assault on the liberal international order—the norms and institutions championed by the United States since World War II to promote democracy, an open trading system ,human rights, and the rule of law. Donald Trump’s foreign policy poses a danger to world affairs precisely because it indulges and employs those threats that originally motivated the formation of the international order. Now, hyper-nationalism and protectionism—the two scourges that ravaged the world in the first half of the twentieth century—have returned in U.S. policies themselves .You must know that the current world order is American creation. From its isolationist policy started by George Washington and ended by Woodrow Wilson in his speech to congress in 1917 in which he raised the issue that when freedom is menaced America can not afford isolation in the world. Then it was after WW II America laid the formation of the structure of the post world order at Britton woods conferences in 1944. It is undeniable that the liberal international order created and led by the United States after World War II achieved some enormous successes. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty in countries like India and China, which began integrating into the global economic order in the 1980s and 1990s. Criticism of this American world order based on this order is actually a camouflage to hide the American imperialism as its institutions are dominated by the US and two this order has created problems like climate, inequality and the development and prosperity is limited to the developed world only.

China on the other side is the driving force behind the creation of the New Development Bank, an alternative to the World Bank. The China-Africa Investment Forum, an annual meeting begun in 2016, is gaining momentum as a platform for deals in Africa. Then there is the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s $1trillion plan to add maritime and land links in Eurasia. Although still at an early stage, it could prompt a major shift in the pattern of global investment, spurring faster economic growth across Asia and connecting many countries that the last era of globalization left behind, therefore China aims to change the American lead im the liberal world. However, Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that China is not trying to replace the United States as a hegemon; it is trying to check the United States globally while expelling it from a Chinese sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Covid-19 and Globalization

Some would argue it will end globalization. The post pandemic world order will be anarchy, where there will be no rules, greater nationalism, great power tussle, nuclear proliferation, greater flow of refugees, fluxes in the nature of states. Recently globalization is being driven by digital technology and is increasingly led by China and other emerging economies. In other words, globalization has not given way to deglobalization; it has simply entered a different phase. In this world, globalization won’t disappear; it will deepen. If in the past global integration grew as trade barriers came down, it will now rely on the connectivity of national digital and virtual
systems and the related flow of ideas and services. This is the core of Globalization 4.0.


COVID-19 and International Cooperation

TO some the Covid-19 may raise new international cooperation. Keohane and Nye liberal institutionalisms argue that such high risks lead to more cooperation as the issues like COVID-19 can not be resolved alone at state level, therefore need global cooperation.

Post Pandemic and Democracy

Some would suggest that a post pandemic world order will shrink space for the democratic forces and will give a new breeze to
authoritarian states, ultra-nationalism, protectionism, closing borders, exploitations of the rights of the minorities, thus will be detrimental to the Westphalian model of democracy. Yet another undesirable outcome of the pandemic would be a spike in various forms of discrimination. '' Globally, societies could become more self-seeking and inward-looking leading to further pushback against liberal policies regarding migration and refugees.'' writes Happymon Jacob who teaches national security at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

Conclusion

However, these all are assumptions. they may prove true or may be untrue. But one thing is clear the post pandemic world will not be the same as the pre pandemic. Moreover, whether the current liberal American world order shall sustain itself or not, much will depend on whether China is ready to lead the world or not. Earlier China has been reluctant to lead the world. That is, some scholars have argued that China only wants its "sphere of influences" should be recognized by the world, especially the USA.

.
Email :yasiryousuf77@gmail.com

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Post Covid-19 : A new World Order?

October 31, 2020 | Yasir Yousuf

Novel Corona Virus declared by World Health Organization (WHO) as COVID-19 as a pandemic affecting more than 215 countries worldwide is an infectious disease caused by a new virus appeared in Wuhan in China first. The disease claimed to have originated

from the largest wet market of seafoods in Chinese Wuhan province locates only a few kilometres away from the world-famous Wuhan Lab While all countries have adopted tough measures to handle the pandemic, the causality it has inflicted worldwide is unprecedented as millions and millions of people are infected with the virus while several lakhs have succumbed to death. Besides, the loss of human life, the virus has serious economic and political ramifications for the countries and the world order as we know at large.
Political implications of this pandemic are no less significant than the economic one as well. The Corona has been the game changer of world politics. Hitherto, the world politics dominated by the U.S and Europe are found to be napping with the worst hit by the virus. The Covid-19 pandemic is reshaping geopolitics. Escalating tensions between the United States and China are the clearest immediate-term outcome.COVID-19 will fundamentally transform the world as we know it: the world order, its balance of power, traditional conceptions of national security, and the future of globalization. The lethal combination of an interconnected world and a deadly virus without a cure is taking humanity into uncharted waters. When we emerge from the lockdown, we must be ready to confront new political and social realities.
The first thing you all must know about any World Order is that no world order is permanent. You must have read The rise and the fall of the great powers by Paul Kennedy.
The second thing you must know is that Any world order requires a stable distribution of power and broad acceptance of the rules that govern the conduct of international relations. We have seen the rise of Athens and consequent Peloponnesian war, latter we have seen world order established by Congress of Vienna in 1815 and later the world order established by America after WWI and ordered it in practical sense after WWII. The rise and fall of major powers determines the viability of the prevailing order, since changes in economic strength, political cohesion, and military power shape what states can and are willing to do beyond their borders.

Crumbling world order : USA vs China ?


Now coming back to the world COVID-19 pandemic and crumbling world order. There are four things you must know and try to
Comprehend and read more on this. There are some important questions being talked about these days like whether USA would continue to be a global hegemon or not? Will China lead the post pandemic world? What will happen to globalization? Will democracy succeed again against authoritarianism?
Will international cooperation gain a new momentum or would it be reversed?
These all questions are being debated nowadays .If you see Foreign affairs magazine, it is full of these stories.
Let's debate on some recent writings to find out answers for above questions.
Some argue that the post pandemic world order will be china driven. The reason is Trumps, America first policy, not leading the world which gave china a space. Fareed Zakaria did earlier talk about the rise of the rest. Chinese firms such as Alibaba have offered to give test kits in millions not the US. Since Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States, many analysts and policymakers inside and outside the United States have bemoaned his assault on the liberal international order—the norms and institutions championed by the United States since World War II to promote democracy, an open trading system ,human rights, and the rule of law. Donald Trump’s foreign policy poses a danger to world affairs precisely because it indulges and employs those threats that originally motivated the formation of the international order. Now, hyper-nationalism and protectionism—the two scourges that ravaged the world in the first half of the twentieth century—have returned in U.S. policies themselves .You must know that the current world order is American creation. From its isolationist policy started by George Washington and ended by Woodrow Wilson in his speech to congress in 1917 in which he raised the issue that when freedom is menaced America can not afford isolation in the world. Then it was after WW II America laid the formation of the structure of the post world order at Britton woods conferences in 1944. It is undeniable that the liberal international order created and led by the United States after World War II achieved some enormous successes. Hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty in countries like India and China, which began integrating into the global economic order in the 1980s and 1990s. Criticism of this American world order based on this order is actually a camouflage to hide the American imperialism as its institutions are dominated by the US and two this order has created problems like climate, inequality and the development and prosperity is limited to the developed world only.

China on the other side is the driving force behind the creation of the New Development Bank, an alternative to the World Bank. The China-Africa Investment Forum, an annual meeting begun in 2016, is gaining momentum as a platform for deals in Africa. Then there is the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s $1trillion plan to add maritime and land links in Eurasia. Although still at an early stage, it could prompt a major shift in the pattern of global investment, spurring faster economic growth across Asia and connecting many countries that the last era of globalization left behind, therefore China aims to change the American lead im the liberal world. However, Oriana Skylar Mastro argues that China is not trying to replace the United States as a hegemon; it is trying to check the United States globally while expelling it from a Chinese sphere of influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Covid-19 and Globalization

Some would argue it will end globalization. The post pandemic world order will be anarchy, where there will be no rules, greater nationalism, great power tussle, nuclear proliferation, greater flow of refugees, fluxes in the nature of states. Recently globalization is being driven by digital technology and is increasingly led by China and other emerging economies. In other words, globalization has not given way to deglobalization; it has simply entered a different phase. In this world, globalization won’t disappear; it will deepen. If in the past global integration grew as trade barriers came down, it will now rely on the connectivity of national digital and virtual
systems and the related flow of ideas and services. This is the core of Globalization 4.0.


COVID-19 and International Cooperation

TO some the Covid-19 may raise new international cooperation. Keohane and Nye liberal institutionalisms argue that such high risks lead to more cooperation as the issues like COVID-19 can not be resolved alone at state level, therefore need global cooperation.

Post Pandemic and Democracy

Some would suggest that a post pandemic world order will shrink space for the democratic forces and will give a new breeze to
authoritarian states, ultra-nationalism, protectionism, closing borders, exploitations of the rights of the minorities, thus will be detrimental to the Westphalian model of democracy. Yet another undesirable outcome of the pandemic would be a spike in various forms of discrimination. '' Globally, societies could become more self-seeking and inward-looking leading to further pushback against liberal policies regarding migration and refugees.'' writes Happymon Jacob who teaches national security at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

Conclusion

However, these all are assumptions. they may prove true or may be untrue. But one thing is clear the post pandemic world will not be the same as the pre pandemic. Moreover, whether the current liberal American world order shall sustain itself or not, much will depend on whether China is ready to lead the world or not. Earlier China has been reluctant to lead the world. That is, some scholars have argued that China only wants its "sphere of influences" should be recognized by the world, especially the USA.

.
Email :yasiryousuf77@gmail.com


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