The Oct 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas presented a model of how a drastic security situation can be created by terrorists. The idea behind such tactics is to attract political attention and escalate the situation. Terrorists also have a propensity to execute copycat events in which the impact of one is intended to be repeated by a different methodology. With the world in a tizzy, terrorism again raising its ugly head to gain some traction was inevitable. Given the country’s age-old strategy of using terrorism as an instrument of state policy, it isn’t surprising that Pakistan is the location of the latest high-impact terror event.
However, one would have expected Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), with full backing of Afghan Taliban, to carry out such a terror event. But it turned out to be Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) that hijacked the Quetta-Peshawar Jaffar Express and held more than 400 passengers hostage. Later, BLA released all women and children, limiting the hostages to mainly service personnel from the Pakistani armed and police forces. Pakistani military launched an offensive operation to rescue the hostages. Reports indicate that at least 8 Pakistani security personnel have lost their lives in the operation, while 30 BLA fighters have been killed and 190 passengers have been rescued. BLA claims to have killed 50 hostages.
It's noteworthy that while BLA has been declared a terrorist organisation by Pakistan and several other countries, it’s not categorised as such by UN. Nonetheless, that BLA was able to hijack an entire train shows its operational capabilities. The group’s preparedness is evident from its choice of location where the train was commandeered. The train was captured next to a tunnel and the surrounding hilly terrain gave BLA fighters a tactical advantage. After taking over the train, BLA warned the Pakistani govt against attempting any daredevil rescue act. But Islamabad launched a massive security operation backed by drones and helicopters, risking the lives of the hostages.
The BLA train hijacking may not be in the same class of violence as Hamas’s Oct 7 attack. But it has definitely proved that separatism in Balochistan cannot be taken lightly. The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan has gone through multiple phases with its roots going back to 1948 when the princely state of Kalat was forcefully annexed by Pakistan, leading to an armed rebellion by Prince Abdul Karim. The insurgency resurfaced in waves over the decades. The most intense phase followed the dismissal of the Balochistan provincial govt by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1973-77. Thousands of Baloch fighters, led by Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri’s followers, took up arms. The current phase of the insurgency escalated after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006 on the orders of Pervez Musharraf, and has been fuelled by groups like BLA.
BLA, as a separatist militant group, has been engaged in an armed insurgency against the Pakistani state for decades. Its primary objectives include achieving an independent Balochistan and resisting what it perceives as exploitation of Baloch resources by Pakistan and China. Towards this goal, BLA has carried out numerous attacks targeting Pakistani security forces, infra, and Chinese interests in Balochistan, particularly those linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest and most resource-rich province. Yet it remains the poorest and least developed. There are enough examples of this rampant exploitation in a situation where the populace receives a meagre quantum of benefits from its local resources. The exploitation extends from the Sui gas fields to gold and copper mining, fisheries and Gwadar port. While Gwadar port has been marketed as a game-changer for Pakistan, Gwadar’s local population remains impoverished, facing issues like water shortages and unemployment, while the benefits largely flow to Chinese companies and Punjab-based elites.
Balochistan’s disadvantage has been the fact that a part of Baloch territory extends into Sistan province of neighbouring Iran, which fears separatism too. However, if the separatist groups in Pakistan tactically join hands with some others without concern for ideology, Pakistan would have another raging separatist movement of the proportions akin to Bangladesh in 1971. For comparison, consider the fact that J&K and the Northeast, at two corners of India, caused much turbulence in the national domain because of the proxy separatist movements in these two areas. Balochistan, meanwhile, is 40% of Pakistan’s landmass and located in its heartland.
Thousands of Baloch activists, students and intellectuals have been abducted by security forces in Pakistan’s “kill and dump” policy. BLA and its supporters argue that the right to self-determination, as outlined in UN resolutions, applies to Balochistan because it was annexed against its will. BLA has substantial following but the state’s response – ranging from military crackdowns to enforced disappearances – has created a climate of fear, weakening the insurgents’ ability to mobilise a mass movement.
This usually results in the situation festering, awaiting eventual exploitation by a strong and charismatic leader akin to LTTE’s V Prabhakaran in Sri Lanka. The Pakistan army’s ham-handed approach can involve large-scale retribution against the population supporting the separatists; a trend also witnessed around the world. That would be a recipe for disaster for Islamabad and the trigger for greater adrenaline among Baloch separatists. With a crumbling economy and eroding democracy, another large-scale separatist movement may present an existential threat to Pakistan.