WATER conflicts may soon become the main source of discord between nations replacing the ongoing boundary disputes. Brigadier Pervez Musharraf (former Pak Army Chief and President) while at the Royal College of Defence Studies in 1990 opines in a research paper that ‘Indus waters issue the potential of future conflict.’ Water is increasingly recognized as a significant dimension of conflict, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, where it's used as a weapon, a casualty, and a trigger for conflict. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how water resources and infrastructure can be targeted and of essential services of water disrupted.

22nd April 2025 witnessed the latest terrorist massacre in Pahalgam, where innocent Hindu tourists were paraded, singled out and slaughtered has forced India to hold the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) “In Abeyance”. “The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.” For a treaty to be in abeyance means that it is temporarily suspended or on hold. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India would identify, track and punish every “terrorist” and their backers. Pakistan has deemed India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty following tourist attack in Kashmir’s Pahalgam an ‘Act of War’, adding that it was prepared to respond, “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power”. Wish it was Suspension and not “In Abeyance”.

Major Global Water Issues Hotspots

Some of the major global hotspots where water issues could spark conflicts between countries: Rivers Indus and Brahmaputra (India- China), Indus River System (India-Pakistan), Nile River Basin (Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia),Tigris-Euphrates Basin (Turkey, Syria, Iraq), (Jordan River Basin (Israel, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon),Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan),Mekong River (China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam), Lake Chad Basin (Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon),Colorado River Basin(United States-Mexico), Kabul River, a tributary of the Indus(Afghanistan–Pakistan), Helmand River(Afghanistan–Iran), River Dnieper (Ukraine-Crimea).

Chinese Plans for river Indus

No one knows the Chinese plans for the river Indus are, which also originates in Tibet. If China is to divert the Indus, Then Kashmir and Pakistan will face the water crunch. Indus provides near 54% of water to Pakistan and irrigates about 71% of the land. Pakistan and China though are long term strong allies but the need of water for life is beyond such relations when it is the question of their own citizens.
Climate Change the world over is witnessing the Glaciers melting faster than earlier predictions. Glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau, the source of many rivers that sustain Asian subcontinent are melting faster than those in any other part of the world. According to reports, the glaciers in Tibet have shrunk by 15 per cent over the past three decades and the situation could worsen in future due to global warming. The Tibetan plateau’s vast glaciers, huge underground springs, and high altitude make Tibet the world’s largest freshwater repository after the polar icecaps. Indeed, all of Asia’s major rivers, except the Ganges, originate in the Tibetan plateau. Even the Ganges’ two main tributaries flow in from Tibet. China has ambitious plans to construct dams and other projects on the rivers which enter India. The most critical of these is Brahmaputra diversion project. The mighty river originates from Kailash range in Tibet (Yarlung Tsangpo) and flows eastwards for 16,000 km. China’s aggressive unilateralism has refused to negotiate a water-sharing treaty with any of its downstream neighbours. On the Brahmaputra, it is building a super-dam, the largest ever conceived, near the seismically active border with India, potentially creating a ticking water bomb.

IWT: World’s Most Generous Water-Sharing Treaty

IWT remains the world’s most generous water-sharing treaty. Pakistan has failed to act in good faith and instead paid India’s generosity not with gratitude, but with a continues bloodshed through its proxy war. India has shown enough patience to tolerate, while Pakistan, and the world considers its patience as India’s sign of weakness. So, the Pahalgam massacre hopingly has finally ended the Indian limit of tolerance. Wonder why India has chosen NOT to suspend nor withdraw from the IWT, deciding instead to place the treaty “In Abeyance”. May be still hoping a behaviour change from a belligerent thankless nation Pakistan.
India is the upper riparian (located upstream) while Pakistan is the lower riparian, which means India has control over how the river flows. Pakistan gets the waters of the three rivers: the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. India can use these rivers to generate hydroelectric power and for some limited agriculture but cannot build infrastructure that restricts the flow of water from those rivers into Pakistan or redirects that water.
Pakistan relies heavily on the water from the western rivers for its agriculture and energy. Pakistan does not have alternative sources of water. Pakistan has a largely agrarian economy, with agriculture contributing 24 percent to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 37.4 percent to employment, according to Pakistan’s most recent economic survey published in 2024. The country’s statistics bureau says that the majority of the population is directly or indirectly dependent on the agriculture sector.

"Kashmir is NOT Pakistan’s Jugular Vein"—
“Indian Water is Pakistan’s Jugular Vein"

India has in the past responded to Pakistani-sponsored terror softly half-heartedly and a return to “Business as Usual.” Pakistan through its proxy war strongly believes on bleeding India with a thousand cuts. Hope India this time reacts strongly to tighten a noose on Pakistan’s where it hurts most: “The Water of Life” that they believe is that "Kashmir is Pakistan’s Jugular Vein". India has allowed Pakistan to continue enjoying an uninterrupted flow of waters from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. Pakistan must be made to understand that every act of terror will directly impact “The Indian Water of Life for their survival.” Waterpower can be used as the most powerful weapon to choke a nation economically and survival of the populace.
If for Pakistan "Kashmir is Pakistan’s Jugular Vein"—vital for its survival due to the livelihood sustained by the Indian waters that flow into Pakistan, then it is in Pakistan’s best interest to foster good neighbourly relations. Maintaining peaceful ties with India would help ensure the continued and unhindered flow of these critical waters for the survival of their populace. "Kashmir Is Pakistan’s Jugular Vein” is just a National Rallying Cry and the voice from which Pakistan seeks to draw Military, Political and Religious power to divert attention to its internal issues. The phrase "Kashmir Is Pakistan’s Jugular Vein” need to be change to “Indian Water is Pakistan’s Jugular Vein" and Not Kashmir. Pakistan needs to stop clinging to the outdated rhetorical metaphors and move forward with reality. The Indian rivers that flow into Pakistan should carry a message that “Indian Rivers Water of Peace shall flow as long as Pakistan behaves.
"India need NOT bleed Pakistan through war, but through the powerful lever in the flow of river waters. Once the flow of Indian rivers, Pakistan's Jugular Vein, is Cut, the True Cry will be of Thirst, not Blood. Let there be No Bloodshed, only the silence of drying rivers and ‘Cry of Water’, for the “Indian Water the Pakistan’s Jugular Vein."

Email:------------------------rcpat311@gmail.com