Srinagar, July 4: A new study has found that transport expansion, urbanisation and changing land-use patterns—not climate change alone—have been the main drivers of ecological transformation in Jammu and Kashmir over the past six decades.

Published in the journal Water Science, the study concludes that socio-economic development has had a much greater impact on land-use and land-cover (LULC) change between 1960 and 2020 than climatic factors, raising concerns over the long-term sustainability of the region's water resources.
The research, titled "Six Decades of Land-use and Land-cover Change in Jammu and Kashmir: Socio-economic Drivers and Implications for Water Resources," was conducted by scientists from the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST-K) and the Symbiosis Statistical Institute, Pune.
Describing Jammu and Kashmir as one of South Asia's most ecologically sensitive mountain regions, the researchers examined six major land-use categories—forests, farmland, grazing land, water bodies, barren land and built-up areas—using six decades of government records and Forest Survey of India data.
The study found that built-up areas expanded rapidly after 1990, while forests, grazing lands and water bodies declined significantly. Overall landscape transformation increased from about 80 per cent in the early decades to nearly 98 per cent by 2020, largely driven by urban expansion and infrastructure development.
After analysing 13 climatic and socio-economic variables, the researchers identified transport expansion as the single strongest driver of land-use change. Passenger and freight traffic volumes showed the strongest association with shrinking forests, grazing lands and water bodies.
According to the study, expanding highways, tourism corridors, quarrying, sand mining and logistics hubs have increasingly encroached upon environmentally sensitive areas.
The researchers concluded that transport growth, urbanisation, rising literacy and increasing incomes had a far stronger influence on landscape change than year-to-year climatic variations.
During the study period, Jammu and Kashmir's population grew from 35 lakh in 1960 to 1.36 crore in 2020, while urbanisation increased from 16.3 per cent to 29.4 per cent. Literacy rose from 11 per cent to 76.9 per cent, alongside substantial economic and industrial growth.
The study warns that the continued decline of wetlands, forests and water bodies could seriously affect future water availability in a region where glaciers, wetlands and forests play a critical role in supplying water to millions downstream.
It also notes that built-up land has become the dominant contributor to landscape transformation, while traditional grazing lands and wetlands continue to shrink due to urban expansion.
The researchers have recommended integrated transport and land-use planning, mandatory environmental assessments for transport corridors, statutory buffer zones around forests and wetlands, stronger regulation of tourism infrastructure, reforms in grazing-land management and annual monitoring of land-use changes.
While acknowledging that the analysis is based on long-term trends rather than direct measurements of river flows or groundwater, the study describes itself as the first comprehensive long-term assessment ranking the drivers of land-use change in Jammu and Kashmir, concluding that development patterns are reshaping the Himalayan landscape more rapidly than climate variability alone.